ZoneAsia Analysis: US-PAK relations post-2014

The Davis affair, OBL raid, Salalah attack, closure of NATO supply routes were one pitfall succeeded by another until one could only wonder: could this get any worse? The current state of affairs does not appear any less dismal. Persistent demands of abstaining from drone strikes from Pakistan’s end have only fallen on deaf ears. Suspicions of al-Zawahiri’s presence and the US House subcommittee’s proposal of imposing conditions on aid to Pakistan indicate that reconciliation may not be around the corner. The looming withdrawal of coalition forces in 2014 also means an agreement acceptable to the regional powers has to be made before the forces exit Afghanistan. 

What does this mean for Pakistan and where does it see its relations with America heading?

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Putin’s decision to skip G8 meeting raises questions about Moscow’s relations

WASHINGTON: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will skip the G8 summit and ice breaker talks with President Barack Obama next week, the White House said Wednesday, raising new questions about Moscow-Washington ties.

Putin had been expected at the summit at Camp David and to hold talks with the US leader in a first test of whether the “reset” policy between the Kremlin and the White House will survive his return to the presidency.

Officials said here after a call between the two leaders, that Putin would send ex-president, and current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, with whom Obama had a close relationship over the last three years, to the United States.

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Spearhead Analysis: Reconciling with Reconciliation

The US Ambassador to Pakistan has worked tirelessly to put US-Pakistan relations on a positive track and both he and his wife have earned the respect of Pakistanis. He was expected to stay at least another year so there is much speculation on the reasons behind his early departure especially because the announcement comes soon after the US Secretary of State stated in India that the US believed that Ayman al Zawahiri was in Pakistan and that the US wanted Hafiz Saeed brought to justice. Ambassador Munter has been trying to find middle ground in the stand-off between the US and Pakistan and there is no doubt that he discerned the pragmatic opinion in Pakistan that wants the relationship revived and the drift into corners that overrules this pragmatism. The US talks to Pakistan from a position of strength as it is perhaps the only country that has the power to shape external environments in pursuit of its interests.  The US-India relationship gets a boost whenever high ranking US officials speak down to Pakistan from India and no doubt this goes down well with the Afghan government too. Pakistan understands the coercion and pressure especially when all US aid is tied to US determination of Pakistan’s cooperation on counter-terrorism operations and actions against the use of IED’s. The US has clearly spelt out that there will be no apology from the US over the Salala incident in which twenty four Pakistani soldiers were killed by US forces and no change in the policy on Drone strikes. The US has kicked the ball fully and squarely into the Pakistani court. The next call has to be by the government of Pakistan—an elected government that is trying desperately to balance civil-military relations and establish civilian supremacy over national security policy formulation.

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NEEDED NOW: AN INTELLECTUAL REVOLUTION IN STRATEGIC THINKING

 

Towards the end of the Cold War, Soviet military thinkers coined the phrase “Military-Technical Revolution (MTR).” Based on a combination of extraordinary advances in precision strike and in information and surveillance technologies, the MTR was successfully transformed by the Pentagon into the “Revolution in Military Affairs.” Meant to defeat the Red Army, the RMA was a real military revolution proven in the first Iraq War in 1991 when U.S. arms pulverized Saddam Hussein’s Army; in Afghanistan quickly routing the Taliban in 2001; and again smashing Iraq two years later.

Today, American and certain allied militaries are exhausted by a decade of war. All face large and looming defense cuts meaning far less money for defense. Under these circumstances, readiness and morale become early casualties.

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The Inadequacies of Pakistan’s Liberal Media

From a tool for state propaganda to playing whistle blower in high profile scandals,the media of a country yields incredible potential by holding the reigns to the sway of public opinion. The interminable manifestation of violence in the country fuelled by religious extremism has by design or default blackened more pages than any other subject in the past decade.

They lie at both ends of the spectrum each vociferous of its ideological spinal cord;from Nawa-i-Waqt with adherence to the two-nation theory as its slogan to the Daily Times that refuses to print remotely pro-radical news. But the bloodcurdling fatwas cum op-eds in right wing papers aren’t solely responsible for invoking the honor of heaven bound ghazis and mujahids. Part of the onus for this must be borne by the liberal end of the spectrum that takes on an apologetic stance in matters of religious extremism.  The sway towards violence,sensationalism and its successes are clear. So does this mean that the media has tried and failed in fulfilling its purpose of objectively disseminating information?

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Spearhead Analysis: Pakistan – An Inside View

If you live in Lahore or any other area you are probably experiencing fourteen to sixteen hours of power outage in a 24 hour cycle and most of it neither announced nor scheduled. There are also sudden power surges and sharp voltage drops. Generators designed to be back up systems cannot cope with the demands on them nor can electrical appliances survive such abuse. No one has ever explained to the suffering people the reason for this state of affairs. Street agitations are routine as are the shouting matches between politicians and the analysts on television. This indifference could become the veneer of dangerous violence as the summer heat sets in and the problem intensifies. More problematic will be the loss in work hours and the health hazard posed by food stored in conditions where the cold chain is repeatedly broken. The government is aware of the situation but faces an uphill task. This inconvenience, however, pales into insignificance against some of the other internal events that shape the image of this nuclear weapons state.

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Lyari - Swat of Sindh

To the oldest locality of Pakistan’s largest city, violence and illegal activities is not new. Lyari saw its first well known gangster back in 1960s. Gangs were typically involved in drug smuggling, bootlegging and other street crimes. The situation took a turn for the worse in the 1980s when weapons and arms began to enter Pakistan through the anti-soviet war in Afghanistan.

Two of the largest and widely known gangs of Lyari are Arshad Pappu’s Gang and Rehman Daicait’s Gang. They once used to be on the same side but a conflict over profits caused Rehman and Haji Lalu, Arshad Pappu’s father, to split. This was a great setback for Lalu as Rehman took his supporters and contacts with him to form the Peoples Amn Committee in 2009.

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Tacstrat Analysis: In the name of National Interest

Speaker, National Assembly, Dr. Fehmida Mirza has still not taken a decision regarding the Prime ministers disqualification proceedings. Earlier the Islamabad High Court (IHC) on Wednesday dismissed a petition against Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani seeking the court’s direction to evict him from office after his conviction by the Supreme Court. Both cited the wait for the detailed verdict from SC as the reason why it is premature to take action.

On April 26th, the SC found PM Gillani guilty of contempt of court for refusing to obey the Apex Court’s directions as Premier to reopen graft cases against the country’s President. While the sentence for such a case could have entailed imprisonment for up to six months, a sizeable fine and disbarment from politics for the period of five years, the SC referred to Article 63 (1) (g) as a mitigating factor and sentenced the PM to a symbolic pronouncement of 30 seconds in custody.

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International Day for Labor – Pakistani Style

Offices all over the country were abuzz with happy anticipation on the eve of First May,International Day for Labor. Smiles plastered all over,everyone looked forward to a day of utter relaxation and content at home. For what else does Labor Day mean to us except a midweek free holiday?

Yours truly was of one of those highly chirpy and excited individuals relishing the thought of a full day off right after ubiquitously hated Monday. Slept till late,woke up to the sound of my servant sweeping my room:

‘aap aaj kaam pe nahin gaaein?’ (Why didn’t you go to work today?) She enquired.

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Obama ad accuses Romney of outsourcing US jobs

President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign released a new ad Tuesday accusing Republican Mitt Romney of outsourcing jobs and slamming him for keeping money in foreign bank accounts.

The ad says Romney “shipped American jobs to places like Mexico and China” when he led the investment firm Bain Capital. And it says Romney “outsourced state jobs to a call center in India” when he was governor of Massachusetts.

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