Thursday, May 31, 2012
The Social Media Bias
Political Islamists arouse suspicion
The post-Arab Spring political scene has exposed the frailty of the ‘marriage of convenience’ between free-thinkers and conservatives. Liberals, the pioneers of the revolutions, have seen their influence dwindle due to their lack of organisation, with parties like the Muslim Brotherhood filling the vacuum. But swayed by electoral success, Islamists are alienating the people by going after plum political posts and seeking to impose curbs on personal freedom
In the business world it is said that there is no such thing as a merger, there is only a takeover: the stronger party amongst the two ultimately ends up in power. The same can be applied to the world of politics. Islamists, traditionally the most organised group in the region, ally themselves with liberals or any change seekers to demand political reform; once these demands are met, they use their newly won political influence to implement their own goals without regard for their former allies.
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Who’s Interests?
As negotiations of terms for restoring the NATO Supply Route start, pitting the indignant Pakistani government against their American counterparts certain issues need to be brought into consideration in the light of certain ground realities in Afghanistan.
After a decade of fighting a lost war and spending up to a trillion dollars to “capture Osama Bin Laden and bring him to justice” in Afghanistan, the US is no close to meeting the objectives of its war than it was eleven years ago. At the recent NATO Summit the US claimed that a 4 billion dollar package for post war Afghanistan would cement the US installed government there and “trainer” garrisons posted in the country will further ensure the stability of the Karzai regime. This as far as previous warfare experiences have taught is utter poppycock. The aid will eventually dwindle, the soldiers slowly back off and Karzai will have to exit before you can say Taliban. That’s what happened in 1989 when Soviet Union stopped sponsoring its puppet ruler in Kabul. Secondly several NATO allies have announced their decision to unilaterally start removing their troops showing a widening gap of trust and faith in the alliance; a fissure that grew steadily ever since NATO has taken on itself the imperative to overstep its mandate and interfere politically and militarily on America’s behalf.
WHAT’S IN A NAME?
Language is a quite remarkable reflection of society and its attitudes. After the Vietnam War and a succession of operational and procurement failures, “the Pentagon” became a term of derision and a public symbol of incompetence. Today, the opposite is true. The Pentagon is seen as representing the most highly regarded sector of American society—the military— though perhaps the perception has swung too far in that direction in lavishing praise especially when the Department must contend with huge and painful budget cuts likely to damage its image.
“Gay” is no longer an adjective. In earlier generations, a “gay, old time” was part of the popular lexicon, meaning happy or fun. The “gay” ‘90’s of more than a century ago certainly would not qualify for the “gay” 90’s of today. It is unclear why or how this change transpired. Yet, it is reflective of the changing attitudes towards sexuality in America.
Tacstrat Analysis: Missile Proliferation
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Playing smart at defense
For the longest of time, NATO has represented the collective interests of the North Atlantic nations in matters of defense. At the beginning its adversaries constituted the Soviet Union and those nations which endorsed the Warsaw Pact. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, NATO decided to evolve into a security organization which safeguarded its members from external threats by carrying operations in distant lands. Soon it began to represent a mindset whereby the wellbeing of the members was linked to the stability of other countries worldwide.
In the past few years, NATO has come to the front line in conflicts zones like Afghanistan and Libya. However, the European debt crisis, US budget cuts in defense, lack of any persisting missions and growing unpopularity about foreign wars has started raising questions about the future of NATO. And once again this security alliance is seen to be evolving into a more mature association. This time it plans to do so under the concept of “Smart Defense”.
Khan to wage legal war on PM Gilani
Announcing to move Supreme Court against national assembly speaker’s ruling on PM Gilani’s qualification on Monday (today), PTI chief Imran Khan has asked the masses to join him transforming Pakistan into a land of prosperity and justice.Addressing a mammoth gathering, majority of them youth, at historical Liaquat Bagh on Sunday evening Imran Khan advised rulers to bow to the Supreme Court and implement its orders.
Amnesty International steps in to save Shia prisoners
DUBAI: Amnesty International on Monday urged Saudi Arabia to free Shia prisoners arrested for taking part in “peaceful” protests and those detained without charge in the kingdom’s Eastern province.
In a report called “Dissident Voices Stifled in the Eastern Province,” where most of the country’s minority Shias live,the rights group said hundreds of individuals,mainly men,but also children,had been arrested since March 2011.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Spearhead Analysis: CHICAGO
The NATO Summit in Chicago was held. Pakistan was invited and participated. There was no bilateral meeting between Pakistan and the US and no meeting of the Pakistan President with the NATO Secretary General. The Southern Distribution Network for NATO logistics through Pakistan remains closed pending conclusion of ongoing discussions. The Chicago Summit, however, declared clearly and unambiguously the 2013 deadline for transition and the 2014 deadline for withdrawal. There was also commitment for continued international support to Afghanistan beyond 2014– and the US already has a bilateral agreement with Afghanistan for ‘support troops’ presence till 2024. The 28 nation NATO alliance has other issues besides Pakistan—the 2% of GDP commitment for defense by each state, the future of NATO and ‘smart defense’ as an option. Pakistan figures in the context of Afghanistan and as a nuclear weapon state in the throes of internal instability and violence.
By now it is clear that the US is unlikely to apologize for the Salala attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers or to stop Drone strikes against targets in FATA—the two key conditions put forth by Pakistan for reopening the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC). The US-Pakistan interaction has declined to an extreme transactional relationship with haggling over the per- container transit fee demanded by Pakistan to compensate for damage to its infrastructure. Senator McCain has called it ‘extortion’ and US law makers have moved to cut down and even stop US aid to Pakistan if Pakistan does not open the GLOC. In the process the narrative of those in Pakistan who oppose reopening of the GLOC has found traction in public opinion—they say that the GLOC must remain closed because it provides logistics support to those who are killing Pakistanis and the Afghans fighting for their freedom. They ridicule and condemn the notion of charging transit fees.
Too Early For the Champagne
A recent series of unfortunate events have cast a red shadow on the South Asian waters, and has many newspapers columnists and opinion makers running articles ranging from sceptical to hysterical. Two of these events which remain most important are firstly, Chinese expansion that most recently resulted in friction with the Philippines. The atmosphere became so hot that Chinese state television actually warned the population of the Philippines to prepare, and possibly evacuate, for a month long war. The second, and most recent, was the downgrading of Standard and Poor’s credit rating for India, to BBB-, the lowest possible credit rating. On their own, these two events would only have affected the regional power balance. But given the size of the aspirations of the two regional superpowers in question, and the hopes the United States had pinned on hedging between the two, the effects, most people believe, will be more widespread.
In an attempt to cope with the rise of China, and the realization of its own decline in relative power, the United States had adopted a number of different strategies to simultaneously befriend and keep in check the growing ambition of China. The policies ranged from co-operation in trade with China, to strengthening and significantly broadening relations with India. The most recent of which was the United States proposing (at least in rhetoric) that China, India and America act as financial regulators and leaders for South Asia. The attempts to befriend China have made little headway. Even though the United States claims that relations with China are better than ever, that’s not saying a lot considering that up until the last decade the Chinese were shooting down American spy planes hovering over China and unearthing bugging devices in their premier’s private plane. China itself, confident as ever in its rise, seems to be in no hurry to forgive anyone. But the sad part is that now plan-BBB- seems to be in jeopardy too. Or is it?
Monday, May 21, 2012
American sectarian
Perhaps the two best-known things about Mitt Romney are that he is a Mormon and that he made a lot of money as a venture capitalist. Since both of these facts present certain liabilities in US politics, his campaign for the White House has tried to make known that the potency of his American nationalism overpowers both his fortune and his faith. It is less well known that Mormonism has a complex history with both American capitalism and American nationalism.
The Mormon prophet Joseph Smith’s family epitomised the displacement that capitalism brought to rural America. In five generations in the New World, beginning in the 1630s, the Smiths lost their membership in the Congregational Church, a bit of capital in a failed investment in the China trade, and their land. Between the 1790s and 1816, in an unsuccessful attempt to maintain the family’s status as landowners, Smith’s grandfather and father migrated from Massachusetts to Vermont to upstate New York. In 1830, when Smith organised his church, his father, Joseph Smith Sr, found himself, at 58 years old, a landless farmer, a fall in status which in modern rural societies is almost impossible to reverse.
Tacstrat Analysis: A Faustian Bargain
Pakistan’s attempt to exact token reprisal for the Salala Attacks did not culminate in the sought after apology from the US nor did it halt drone strikes past a month. It might have been perceived by our top echelons as an opportunity to re-draw our lines of engagement, and the political claptrap surrounding the Parliamentary Committee for National Security (PCNS) debates must have bolstered this stance. Difai Pakistan took to the streets clad in martial-rightwing chainmail issuing dire warnings in case of resumption of the supply route, and Khar went on to declare the two countries as strategic partners not allies.
But all good things come to an end; the ephemeral excuse of national interest could not hold ground for long in this case. So when the DCC (Defense Committee of the Cabinet) got on board the G-LOCS (Ground Lines of Communication), the early dissenters quietly returned to their camps. With promises of commission ‘up to’ a million dollars a day, the government began selling the newly negotiated terms as a strategic win to save face.
Friday, May 18, 2012
Eradicate polio for good
During the next two weeks,two events offer the chance for a breakthrough. First,the leaders of the world’s largest economies,the G8,congregate at the US presidential retreat at Camp David in Maryland. A week later,the world’s ministers of health convene in Geneva. Together,they can push to deliver on an epic promise:to liberate humankind from one of the world’s most deadly and debilitating diseases.
Tacstrat Analysis: What double-game?
For the most part Americans and the World believe Pakistan has fallen no short of treacherous in the ‘War on terror’ that started eleven years ago. Islamabad’s so-called ‘shady tactics’ have given her biggest ally cold feet, time and again. With aid cuts and unilateral attacks Washington has been able to step on dependent Pakistan’s fragile self esteem by conveying crisply “who’s boss”. More recently an American journalist interviewed Prime Minister Gilani, confirming the tone of this asymmetrical partnership. Gilani, a controversial figure back home, who’s Premiership itself is criticized and rejected over the infamous ‘Contempt of Court’ case, was pushed into the corner of shame, reminded of his vulnerable position and ‘dysfunctionality’ of the society he represents.
When the Afghan war of 2001 started, Musharraf’s government was told “You’re either with us or against us”. The only option at that point was too join the anti-terrorism bandwagon. Then, like the 1980s, Pakistan was a critical ally, crucial to the success of the war. This positive image however has deteriorated. From the most vital ally Pakistan has depreciated to an enemy, labeled a hypocrite and more frequently a traitor, in not so many words. Pakistan’s relationship with the US has been unpredictable since 1947; however at such a crucial point in history, US suspicion is perhaps the last delicacy Pakistan needs on her platter.
Pakistan Security Brief – May 16, 2012
Monday, May 14, 2012
Obama Welcomes Afghan Security Transfer
U.S. President Barack Obama has welcomed the latest transfer of security from NATO to Afghan forces, saying it is “an important step forward” toward achieving objectives in Afghanistan.
The security transfer, announced by Kabul on May 13, takes in 230 districts and the centers of all provincial capitals, including the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar city.
The announcement came the same day attackers shot dead an influential peace negotiator in the capital, Kabul.
ZoneAsia Analysis: US-PAK relations post-2014
The Davis affair, OBL raid, Salalah attack, closure of NATO supply routes were one pitfall succeeded by another until one could only wonder: could this get any worse? The current state of affairs does not appear any less dismal. Persistent demands of abstaining from drone strikes from Pakistan’s end have only fallen on deaf ears. Suspicions of al-Zawahiri’s presence and the US House subcommittee’s proposal of imposing conditions on aid to Pakistan indicate that reconciliation may not be around the corner. The looming withdrawal of coalition forces in 2014 also means an agreement acceptable to the regional powers has to be made before the forces exit Afghanistan.
What does this mean for Pakistan and where does it see its relations with America heading?
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Putin’s decision to skip G8 meeting raises questions about Moscow’s relations
WASHINGTON: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will skip the G8 summit and ice breaker talks with President Barack Obama next week, the White House said Wednesday, raising new questions about Moscow-Washington ties.
Putin had been expected at the summit at Camp David and to hold talks with the US leader in a first test of whether the “reset” policy between the Kremlin and the White House will survive his return to the presidency.
Officials said here after a call between the two leaders, that Putin would send ex-president, and current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, with whom Obama had a close relationship over the last three years, to the United States.
Spearhead Analysis: Reconciling with Reconciliation
NEEDED NOW: AN INTELLECTUAL REVOLUTION IN STRATEGIC THINKING
Towards the end of the Cold War, Soviet military thinkers coined the phrase “Military-Technical Revolution (MTR).” Based on a combination of extraordinary advances in precision strike and in information and surveillance technologies, the MTR was successfully transformed by the Pentagon into the “Revolution in Military Affairs.” Meant to defeat the Red Army, the RMA was a real military revolution proven in the first Iraq War in 1991 when U.S. arms pulverized Saddam Hussein’s Army; in Afghanistan quickly routing the Taliban in 2001; and again smashing Iraq two years later.
Today, American and certain allied militaries are exhausted by a decade of war. All face large and looming defense cuts meaning far less money for defense. Under these circumstances, readiness and morale become early casualties.
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
The Inadequacies of Pakistan’s Liberal Media
From a tool for state propaganda to playing whistle blower in high profile scandals,the media of a country yields incredible potential by holding the reigns to the sway of public opinion. The interminable manifestation of violence in the country fuelled by religious extremism has by design or default blackened more pages than any other subject in the past decade.
They lie at both ends of the spectrum each vociferous of its ideological spinal cord;from Nawa-i-Waqt with adherence to the two-nation theory as its slogan to the Daily Times that refuses to print remotely pro-radical news. But the bloodcurdling fatwas cum op-eds in right wing papers aren’t solely responsible for invoking the honor of heaven bound ghazis and mujahids. Part of the onus for this must be borne by the liberal end of the spectrum that takes on an apologetic stance in matters of religious extremism. The sway towards violence,sensationalism and its successes are clear. So does this mean that the media has tried and failed in fulfilling its purpose of objectively disseminating information?
Spearhead Analysis: Pakistan – An Inside View
Lyari - Swat of Sindh
To the oldest locality of Pakistan’s largest city, violence and illegal activities is not new. Lyari saw its first well known gangster back in 1960s. Gangs were typically involved in drug smuggling, bootlegging and other street crimes. The situation took a turn for the worse in the 1980s when weapons and arms began to enter Pakistan through the anti-soviet war in Afghanistan.
Two of the largest and widely known gangs of Lyari are Arshad Pappu’s Gang and Rehman Daicait’s Gang. They once used to be on the same side but a conflict over profits caused Rehman and Haji Lalu, Arshad Pappu’s father, to split. This was a great setback for Lalu as Rehman took his supporters and contacts with him to form the Peoples Amn Committee in 2009.
Tacstrat Analysis: In the name of National Interest
Speaker, National Assembly, Dr. Fehmida Mirza has still not taken a decision regarding the Prime ministers disqualification proceedings. Earlier the Islamabad High Court (IHC) on Wednesday dismissed a petition against Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani seeking the court’s direction to evict him from office after his conviction by the Supreme Court. Both cited the wait for the detailed verdict from SC as the reason why it is premature to take action.
On April 26th, the SC found PM Gillani guilty of contempt of court for refusing to obey the Apex Court’s directions as Premier to reopen graft cases against the country’s President. While the sentence for such a case could have entailed imprisonment for up to six months, a sizeable fine and disbarment from politics for the period of five years, the SC referred to Article 63 (1) (g) as a mitigating factor and sentenced the PM to a symbolic pronouncement of 30 seconds in custody.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
International Day for Labor – Pakistani Style
Offices all over the country were abuzz with happy anticipation on the eve of First May,International Day for Labor. Smiles plastered all over,everyone looked forward to a day of utter relaxation and content at home. For what else does Labor Day mean to us except a midweek free holiday?
Yours truly was of one of those highly chirpy and excited individuals relishing the thought of a full day off right after ubiquitously hated Monday. Slept till late,woke up to the sound of my servant sweeping my room:
‘aap aaj kaam pe nahin gaaein?’ (Why didn’t you go to work today?) She enquired.
Obama ad accuses Romney of outsourcing US jobs
President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign released a new ad Tuesday accusing Republican Mitt Romney of outsourcing jobs and slamming him for keeping money in foreign bank accounts.
The ad says Romney “shipped American jobs to places like Mexico and China” when he led the investment firm Bain Capital. And it says Romney “outsourced state jobs to a call center in India” when he was governor of Massachusetts.
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