The Global agreement to occupy

Police in New York City, Boston, Los Angeles, Baltimore, San Francisco and many other American cities may have evacuated peaceful demonstrators of the Occupy movement. But that’s done little to quell the unsettling discontent sweeping the globe.

Concerns of the Occupy movement in the United States are linked with protests from afar. One of the most poignant moments during Occupy Wall Street was when the Egyptian flag was hoisted over Wall Street. Unspoken irony and exuberance swept like a wave through crowds at Zuccotti Park. Protest leaders from Cairo’s Tahrir Square had joined Occupy Wall Street.

Egyptian protestors explained to Occupy protesters how Washington spends US$1.3 billion each year supporting Egypt’s military. The funds Mubarak used to repress human rights, and those Egyptian protestors themselves, could have been spent in the United States to upgrade infrastructure and create jobs.

CIA’s incompetence

Based on its recent string of failures, most notably those that have occurred under America’s top general-turned-spymaster David Petraeus, the CIA has become a third-tier intelligence agency that is trying to prop around the world up a failing, financially bankrupt, and over-extended super-power the United States.

The CIA, started in 1947 with veterans of the war-time Office of Strategic Services (OSS) and military personnel, who were soon supplemented by economists and international relations graduates of America’s top Ivy League universities, is now attempting to promote itself as a “made-for-television” futuristic high-tech spy and covert warfare agency, operating intelligence-gathering and armed drones from over 60 bases around the world. All that is missing from the CIA’s over-inflated view of itself are the X-Men and Jason Bourne.

The record of the CIA speaks otherwise. The agency has become a bloated and ineffectual spy agency that is heavy on inflating intelligence reports while being responsible for major intelligence failures.

Veena is not our biggest problem?

Veena Malik has captured our attention once again. FHM,a men’s magazine,has run a cover featuring a nude Veena Malik, dexterously covering herself with her arms and legs. Malik,in turn,has claimed that the cover is morphed and is suing for damages. She has,however,admitted to shooting “bold” photos with FHM,one of which included a bikini/thong. So even if Malik readily posed naked,or nearly naked,for a men’s magazine whose profit lies in objectifying women,we ask…

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The Changing Game Plan

The game changing and decisive events are unfolding at almost breathtaking pace in Pakistan. Pakistan army and the nation have stood up to defy and shock the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Within the country, the corrupt head of the PPP regime Zardari flees to Dubai for "treatment" after a "heart attack".

Pakistan army is in charge of the country's national security issues with the PPP government totally in panic and confusion. Pak army has taken most firm and hostile stand against the US calling the attacks "deliberate", "part of a plot" and to support the TTP insurgents. These are the most damning allegations from the Pakistan army yet against the US forces in last 10 years of "alliance".

So, it is not just the blockade of NATO supplies that is hurting US tremendously. They have been forced to vacate the Shamsi airbase also which they had been using under a farcical diplomatic arrangement between UAE and Pakistan. This base was not just for the operations within Pakistan but was also being used against Iran and for spying on Pakistan's nuclear facilities through their newest "stealth" drone which could not be easily detected by Pakistani radars.

While the new contract for supplies is being debated, this is an irrevocable damage done already to the entire US war plans against Pakistan and Iran. Iranians are extremely pleased indeed. Iranians suspect that the drone which they had shot down recently was most probably flown out of Shamsi. Ejection from Shamsi is a major setback indeed for the CIA.

The NATO supplies are now choking Pakistan ports and roads with thousands of containers, military vehicles and arms enough to raise many divisions of army vulnerable to attacks from the militants. This is the ultimate nightmare for the NATO. The more these supplies are on the road; the more chances are that they will end up in smoke. Attacks have already begun.

There is another fear which is now eating up the US and NATO planners. In the 90's, Pakistan had purchased the F-16's from the US but they were seized under the new laws which prohibited sale of these equipment to Pakistan. Despite the fact that Pakistan has already paid the price in full, these jets were not handed over to Pakistan and Pakistan was even charged for the parking fee into millions of dollars while these jets remained parked on military bases of the US.

Now there are thousands of US military vehicles and equipment which is lying all across Pakistan waiting to cross into Afghanistan. US have also not paid billions of dollars of Coalition Support Fund which they were supposed to pay to Pakistan for using Pakistan's roads, ports and infrastructure. Now, Pakistan can actually seize all this militaryhardware and goods as payment for the arrears or if the relations hit new low, these can be seized as hostile enemy property as well. There is a real possibility that this equipment, if it survives the attacks from the militants, may actually end up in the new formations of the Pakistan army.

US is threatening to cut Pakistan aid. But US are again playing with fire here as well. Pak army can simply move in to help themselves with brand new state of the art NATO military hardware worth billions of dollars.

US know that if Pakistan army gets hostile, it would be the end of the US in Afghanistan. Their entire military and economic strategy for the 21 st century now faces the risk of going up in smoke just because Pakistan army has had enough of non-sense from the US and NATO.

US and their lawmakers are now desperate to find ways and means to bring back Pakistan. Pakistan had also boycotted the Bonn conference. That had magnified the US embarrassment and had insult to the injury. There are many US lawmakers demanding aid cut. But the more pragmatic ones realize that they must remain engaged with Pakistan.

It is actually incredible that Pakistan's just one NO has stunned the US and NATO in so many theatres. The problems and crisis for NATO does not end with Pakistan's blockade of their supplies. The economy of NATO states is collapsing at home! Euro zone is now dismantling and it will become impossible for NATO states of justify their overseas military operations which remain open ended and without any mission objective.

So, what are the options open to US now?

It is a desperate situation no doubt for the Washington and the Pentagon. US had planned a contingency strategy for such an eventuality which envisaged a massive air strike on Pakistan's command and control systems and the elimination of the military leadership.

This exact plan was known to Hussain Haqqani, the former Pakistani ambassador to US who is now facing the treason charges in Pakistan and the blowing up of this very scandal has forced Zardari to flee as well under the pretext of health.

But if US do go through with such a sinister and high risk plan, how will it bring troops on ground to secure a nuclear armed state? US cannot control Afghanistan, let alone a Muslim martial nation of 170 million which has around 7 million armed men within tribals and local militias to support the Pakistan army, which is also nuclear armed and allied with China and Iran.

US plan was to bomb Pakistan and then land its forces on Gawader to try to cut a land route to Afghanistan. If US want its own terms, it will have to embark on this most dangerous adventure which has all the possibility of getting out of hand into a regional war.

That is where the Indian Cold start military doctrine comes in. The US Af-Pak doctrine was designed to work in tandem with Indian Cold Start strategy. The air blitz was to come from US/NATO. Ground forces would move in from India to "secure" Pakistan while the US would land and cut a corridor to Afghanistan from Gawader.

But the entire strength of this sinister high risk plan was the secrecy. Now the cover is blown, Pakistan army is ready, deployed and armed.

Strategic assets deployed and directed towards US and Indian assets. The entire US/India plan of surprise and secrecy is now up in flames.

So, now, either US succumb to demands of Pakistan and find an exit strategy and leave Afghanistan while they still can. Else, they risk a massive regional war which can even go nuclear and would surely also eliminate the entire US/NATO force in Afghanistan and the region, also drawing in Iran, India and China into the conflict.

These are the most difficult times for Obama and his administration. He had come to bring victory to the US in Afghanistan. Now he faces a humiliating defeat as in Vietnam.

The US administration can hope to find a slave government in Islamabad but this is not happening now. In the absence of a docile, corrupt and incompetent regime, US is now forced to deal with a tough Pakistan army which is raging with sense of revenge after having lost tens of thousands of finest of officers and men in a war of terrorism and insurgency which was orchestrated by the CIA.

The Pakistan's military leadership is now firm and is determined to undo the mistakes of the past. Even if the military leadership in Pakistan tries to give some concessions to the US at this stage, they cannot due to sheer rage and anger in the armed forces and the nation.

The entire nation now stands united behind the army and the PPP regime and the US/NATO can only watch in helplessness and the wretched Indian wait in the desert for the signal from the Pentagon which is not forthcoming.

The future of the world now depends upon "Yes" and "No" from Pakistan, literally! No one is more nervous than Obama these days, apart from Zardari of course, who is meeting the CIA in Dubai trying to find out how to save his regime.

If Zardari and CIA cannot find away to "neutralize" the Pakistan army, then Zardari is not coming back to Pakistan. He has been caught along with Hussain Haqqani in the memo scandal and now this is costing him his seat. Meanwhile, the "rumors" of a coup are red hot in Islamabad. There is no doubt that even the army is fed up of this regime. It is criminal, treacherous and has abandoned the nation in these most difficult times.

Army is hoping that Supreme Court will deal with them legally and the army will not have to step in. But if the SC does not deliver, army may just step in as the US/NATO war threats loom.

STORM IN A TEA CUP?

The elected President of Pakistan had a cardiac episode and decided to go to Dubai for treatment. Perhaps he knew a doctor there or maybe he felt more secure or maybe he thought that if required he could go to London from there. His last cardiac check up was in London in September. Whatever the reason he decided on Dubai. Instead of one factual statement from his spokesman,everyone and his aunt came out with their own version of why the President had gone to Dubai. They felt compelled to add that he would soon be back—as if they were reassuring themselves.

Continue reading STORM IN A TEA CUP?

PEARL HARBOR REDUX

Seventy years ago today, the Japanese Navy launched strikes against Pearl Harbor sinking much of "Battleship Row," awakening a sleeping giant and forcing the United States into World War II with catastrophic effects for the Axis powers. Countless lessons have been learned and many forgotten over that attack. Yet, seven decades later, a great deal is still to be learned from what President Franklin Delano Roosevelt famously named a Day of Infamy.

The first and most important lesson is that surprise attacks work initially. Very few surprise attacks have failed in achieving immediate aims. Yet, while both Pearl Harbor and Hitler's June 22nd, 1941 surprise attack against Russia achieved initial successes, the end result was ultimately disastrous. Japan had indeed launched a successful surprise attack on the Russian fleet in 1904. But the Japanese were desperate to negotiate a truce in 1905 bled by the Asian ground war against the Tsar and orchestrated by another Roosevelt---TR.

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A Marshall Plan-like Strategy for Afghanistan

India has called for a ‘Marshall Plan’ for Afghanistan to address deficits in areas of security, development, investment and governance.

Addressing an international conference in Afghanistan, external affairs minister SM Krishna also warned of a potent threat to the country’s security from terrorism and insurgency being fuelled from outside its borders. Though the reference was obvious, Pakistan’s name was not taken.

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State Owned Enterprises: Can we pull them out of the black hole?

Just last year, Transparency International rated Pakistan as the 34th most corrupt nation in the world. Corruption has spread like a wild fire across the country consuming all public and private sectors. Recently, a corruption case against Nawaz Sharif was dismissed where it was alleged that he allotted land to his friends. Supreme Court asked Pakistan Railways to report the names of people involved in selling scrap at throwaway prices and buying overpriced bulbs to the National Accountability Bureau. Concerns were voiced by the Chief Justice of Pakistan over non-transparency in the rental power projects, which if proven true would signal the end of these projects. FIA interrogated PM Gillani’s son, Abdul Qadir, in a Haj corruption case where the financing of a bullet proof jeep was dubious. Defense Ministry allegedly found 88 armed officials involved in corruption while the Public Accounts Committee declared three top army generals responsible for the Rs1.8 billion losses in the National Logistics Cell scam. Transparency International raised allegations about bribery involved in the procurement of 2 aircrafts on lease for Haj operations. Federal Bureau Revenue recovered Rs 7.39 billion from energy companies which were concealing payable liability for the past few years. Chaudhry Nisar’s resignation from the Public Accounts Committee over the controversial appointment of the new Attorney General of Pakistan made us realize that even the agencies created to counter corruption were not free from this disease. On the international front, 3 players from our national cricket team were found guilty of spot-fixing during the Lord's Test between England and Pakistan last August.

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Pakistan –Its broke and you can’t fix it!

I hate to be honest and factual about certain issues and subjects…Unfortunately Pakistan’s future happens to be one such subject. It’s like discussing future medical treatment for a 100% certified terminally ill patient whose chances of recovery are worse than none. While the doctors discuss with family of the patient what course of treatment would be best to make the patient less uncomfortable,they are also trying to prepare the family of the dreadful inevitable. In the back of their minds,friends and family also know where the situation is heading yet they try to block it as much as they can and for as long as they can. But the less emotional relatives and friends who have only material interest with the dying patient start planning their future course of action. 

Continue reading Pakistan –Its broke and you can’t fix it!

All aboard the Change Express

After more than fifteen years in the political sidelines, Khan with an increasingly swelling entourage of popular and politically seasoned party defectors is an emerging force to be reckoned with.  Khan of cricket and Shaukat Khanam Hospital fame is no more the controversial guest speaker on talk shows that required drama, no. Whispers of the Establishment’s new favorite party began to make rounds in rumor mills and drawing rooms as Mian Azhar from PML-Q crossed over to PTI followed by, ex-MPA Ifitkhar Soomro, Allama Iqbal’s grandson Waleed Iqbal, veteran columnist Shafqat Mehmood, Pir Pagara’s son Rashid Shah and earlier this week Khans’ new right hand ex-foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi pledged allegiance to the PTI cause. Marvi Memon hasn’t yet sworn fealty to PTI but is expected to. And thus enter the much needed elements of political savoir-faire and feudal mass following in PTI’s horde of frenzied political workers. 

This chain of events is a marked departure from Khan’s earlier promises of steering clear of tainted veterans and bringing an end to feudal lordship over the parliament. Khan’s appearances on television nowadays have become more about offering excuses and explanations for allowing ‘political orphans’ from all kinds of alphabet soup parties to throng to his fold than to finally iterate his party policies and put an end to erratic stances he’s so famous for taking and decide where he stands. He’s right when he says PTI needs experienced politicians and Qureshi’s feudal and Mureed following will take PTI a long way, however will this addition of ideologically opposed elements within the party, give way to mere stagnancy and perpetuation of the feudal cause once PTI does make inroads to the parliament house? 

Qureshi and Khan aren’t exactly known for Seeing Eye to Eye on issues of foreign policy and matters pertaining to the military either. Where Khan openly supports friendly ties with India, a stance that keeps him at loggerheads with the military, Qureshi from his old IJI days was a stalwart ‘GHQ man’ who was known for keeping his GHQ brief with him at all times when he was foreign minister. Qureshi’s flitting back and forth between political parties has not entirely incorrectly gotten him labeled a fair weather politician, whether his role in PTI will be to temper down his impulsive quixotic party leader, steer the current wave of popularity to a stable pool of support or cleave PTI along ideological lines and leave for whatever party looks more attractive, only time will tell. 

READ MORE HERE: All aboard the Change Express