President Barack Obama is underscoring the administration’s “strategic pivot” to Asia with his current trip to the Pacific. This column has criticized this pivot and the botched public diplomacy campaign that managed to irritate friends, allies and, of course, China. The Pentagon attempted to minimize the PR damage renaming the pivot “rebalancing.” But so far the obvious and potentially fatal flaws in this pivot with its emphasis on military and not diplomatic, economic and political tools remain uncorrected.
Meanwhile, the most dangerous and visible ticking time bombs lie in North Africa, the Middle East, Iran and the Afghan-Pakistani border where conflict is ongoing and could too easily explode. Tensions in the South and East China seas over territorial claims involving several states are unlikely to escalate to war. While China is increasing its defense spending and its military capability, virtually all of its neighbors are not friends or allies and possess (or could possess) counter-balancing forces, including India’s large and nuclear equipped army.
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