Showing posts with label india. Show all posts
Showing posts with label india. Show all posts

Thursday, May 22, 2014

FORK TONGUED PALEFACES


Modi and Nawaz must listen to their people and their true well wishers instead of troble makes like Bruce Reidel

Bruce Riedel, a former CIA man and now affiliated with a Washington think-tank is no friend of Pakistan. This much was always clear from his writings. Now an article written by him and published in India’s Hindustan Times seems to indicate that he is no friend of India’s either. What he has proposed as an agenda for India’s new Prime Minister could lead to a disastrous situation in South Asia.

Mr Riedel and many others in the think-tank community are in a time warp. Their mind sets have not changed. They refuse to believe that countries like India and Pakistan can ever think straight and that they are forever condemned to stew in their own juices. They cannot see the changes sweeping the region or refuse to see those changes because if they did how would they justify the dire predictions that they need to make to stay in their think-tank jobs. There are many such experts around. One of the funniest sights on the Track II circuit is a group of eminent Indians and Pakistanis sitting around a table in discussions moderated and funded by Western think tanks with a ‘paleface’ telling the ‘Indians’ what is good and what is not good for them. Sad but true.

Saturday, December 17, 2011

The Changing Game Plan

The game changing and decisive events are unfolding at almost breathtaking pace in Pakistan. Pakistan army and the nation have stood up to defy and shock the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Within the country, the corrupt head of the PPP regime Zardari flees to Dubai for "treatment" after a "heart attack".

Pakistan army is in charge of the country's national security issues with the PPP government totally in panic and confusion. Pak army has taken most firm and hostile stand against the US calling the attacks "deliberate", "part of a plot" and to support the TTP insurgents. These are the most damning allegations from the Pakistan army yet against the US forces in last 10 years of "alliance".

So, it is not just the blockade of NATO supplies that is hurting US tremendously. They have been forced to vacate the Shamsi airbase also which they had been using under a farcical diplomatic arrangement between UAE and Pakistan. This base was not just for the operations within Pakistan but was also being used against Iran and for spying on Pakistan's nuclear facilities through their newest "stealth" drone which could not be easily detected by Pakistani radars.

While the new contract for supplies is being debated, this is an irrevocable damage done already to the entire US war plans against Pakistan and Iran. Iranians are extremely pleased indeed. Iranians suspect that the drone which they had shot down recently was most probably flown out of Shamsi. Ejection from Shamsi is a major setback indeed for the CIA.

The NATO supplies are now choking Pakistan ports and roads with thousands of containers, military vehicles and arms enough to raise many divisions of army vulnerable to attacks from the militants. This is the ultimate nightmare for the NATO. The more these supplies are on the road; the more chances are that they will end up in smoke. Attacks have already begun.

There is another fear which is now eating up the US and NATO planners. In the 90's, Pakistan had purchased the F-16's from the US but they were seized under the new laws which prohibited sale of these equipment to Pakistan. Despite the fact that Pakistan has already paid the price in full, these jets were not handed over to Pakistan and Pakistan was even charged for the parking fee into millions of dollars while these jets remained parked on military bases of the US.

Now there are thousands of US military vehicles and equipment which is lying all across Pakistan waiting to cross into Afghanistan. US have also not paid billions of dollars of Coalition Support Fund which they were supposed to pay to Pakistan for using Pakistan's roads, ports and infrastructure. Now, Pakistan can actually seize all this militaryhardware and goods as payment for the arrears or if the relations hit new low, these can be seized as hostile enemy property as well. There is a real possibility that this equipment, if it survives the attacks from the militants, may actually end up in the new formations of the Pakistan army.

US is threatening to cut Pakistan aid. But US are again playing with fire here as well. Pak army can simply move in to help themselves with brand new state of the art NATO military hardware worth billions of dollars.

US know that if Pakistan army gets hostile, it would be the end of the US in Afghanistan. Their entire military and economic strategy for the 21 st century now faces the risk of going up in smoke just because Pakistan army has had enough of non-sense from the US and NATO.

US and their lawmakers are now desperate to find ways and means to bring back Pakistan. Pakistan had also boycotted the Bonn conference. That had magnified the US embarrassment and had insult to the injury. There are many US lawmakers demanding aid cut. But the more pragmatic ones realize that they must remain engaged with Pakistan.

It is actually incredible that Pakistan's just one NO has stunned the US and NATO in so many theatres. The problems and crisis for NATO does not end with Pakistan's blockade of their supplies. The economy of NATO states is collapsing at home! Euro zone is now dismantling and it will become impossible for NATO states of justify their overseas military operations which remain open ended and without any mission objective.

So, what are the options open to US now?

It is a desperate situation no doubt for the Washington and the Pentagon. US had planned a contingency strategy for such an eventuality which envisaged a massive air strike on Pakistan's command and control systems and the elimination of the military leadership.

This exact plan was known to Hussain Haqqani, the former Pakistani ambassador to US who is now facing the treason charges in Pakistan and the blowing up of this very scandal has forced Zardari to flee as well under the pretext of health.

But if US do go through with such a sinister and high risk plan, how will it bring troops on ground to secure a nuclear armed state? US cannot control Afghanistan, let alone a Muslim martial nation of 170 million which has around 7 million armed men within tribals and local militias to support the Pakistan army, which is also nuclear armed and allied with China and Iran.

US plan was to bomb Pakistan and then land its forces on Gawader to try to cut a land route to Afghanistan. If US want its own terms, it will have to embark on this most dangerous adventure which has all the possibility of getting out of hand into a regional war.

That is where the Indian Cold start military doctrine comes in. The US Af-Pak doctrine was designed to work in tandem with Indian Cold Start strategy. The air blitz was to come from US/NATO. Ground forces would move in from India to "secure" Pakistan while the US would land and cut a corridor to Afghanistan from Gawader.

But the entire strength of this sinister high risk plan was the secrecy. Now the cover is blown, Pakistan army is ready, deployed and armed.

Strategic assets deployed and directed towards US and Indian assets. The entire US/India plan of surprise and secrecy is now up in flames.

So, now, either US succumb to demands of Pakistan and find an exit strategy and leave Afghanistan while they still can. Else, they risk a massive regional war which can even go nuclear and would surely also eliminate the entire US/NATO force in Afghanistan and the region, also drawing in Iran, India and China into the conflict.

These are the most difficult times for Obama and his administration. He had come to bring victory to the US in Afghanistan. Now he faces a humiliating defeat as in Vietnam.

The US administration can hope to find a slave government in Islamabad but this is not happening now. In the absence of a docile, corrupt and incompetent regime, US is now forced to deal with a tough Pakistan army which is raging with sense of revenge after having lost tens of thousands of finest of officers and men in a war of terrorism and insurgency which was orchestrated by the CIA.

The Pakistan's military leadership is now firm and is determined to undo the mistakes of the past. Even if the military leadership in Pakistan tries to give some concessions to the US at this stage, they cannot due to sheer rage and anger in the armed forces and the nation.

The entire nation now stands united behind the army and the PPP regime and the US/NATO can only watch in helplessness and the wretched Indian wait in the desert for the signal from the Pentagon which is not forthcoming.

The future of the world now depends upon "Yes" and "No" from Pakistan, literally! No one is more nervous than Obama these days, apart from Zardari of course, who is meeting the CIA in Dubai trying to find out how to save his regime.

If Zardari and CIA cannot find away to "neutralize" the Pakistan army, then Zardari is not coming back to Pakistan. He has been caught along with Hussain Haqqani in the memo scandal and now this is costing him his seat. Meanwhile, the "rumors" of a coup are red hot in Islamabad. There is no doubt that even the army is fed up of this regime. It is criminal, treacherous and has abandoned the nation in these most difficult times.

Army is hoping that Supreme Court will deal with them legally and the army will not have to step in. But if the SC does not deliver, army may just step in as the US/NATO war threats loom.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

India’s pivotal role in Nepal’s Crisis

The sovereign Nepal is in a crisis ridden plight. Indian conspiracy is responsible for this miserable plight of Nepal. India is working to upset the existing harmony between nationality and democracy. To gain this objective it is using the brokers here so that it can conspire to not allow nationality and democracy to walk hand-in-hand. Another cause for this crisis is, due to the traitor's in regime, the failure on part of Nepal's leadership in remaining alert. In spite of the emergence of democracy in 1950 nationality was made 'bowl of the beggars'- inferior.

India’s pivotal role in Nepal’s Crisis

The sovereign Nepal is in a crisis ridden plight. Indian conspiracy is responsible for this miserable plight of Nepal. India is working to upset the existing harmony between nationality and democracy. To gain this objective it is using the brokers here so that it can conspire to not allow nationality and democracy to walk hand-in-hand. Another cause for this crisis is, due to the traitor's in regime, the failure on part of Nepal's leadership in remaining alert. In spite of the emergence of democracy in 1950 nationality was made 'bowl of the beggars'- inferior.

Anna Hazare agrees to visit Pakistan for fighting corruption

Indian social activist Anna Hazare has accepted an invitation by a two-member Pakistani delegation to visit Pakistan soon, Hindustan Times reported Wednesday.

Hazare gave his consent at the Ralegan Siddhi village when he was visited by former Supreme Court judge Justice Nasir Aslam Zahid and eminent peace activist Karamat Ali on Wednesday.

Continue reading Anna Hazare agrees to visit Pakistan for fighting corruption

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

“Dalit Suffering: Politics of dis-uniting”

Dalit unity is one the pre-conditions for any kind of collective action for making democratic and just claims in order to achieve the realization of basic human rights and dignity for the Dalits. However, the question of justice and equitable distribution of public goods among heterogeneous groups of Dalit has taken the ugly turn of inter-caste/class conflicts in recent times. By and large, Dalits have suffered immensely at the hands of Brahminical and feudal forces, but the general practice of untouchability and discrimination exists among them also. As per the 2001 Census, the population of Scheduled Castes was 166 million. [1] They are officially classified into 1208 castes as on 23.09.2008, [2] as notified by the President of India under Article 341(1) of the Constitution of India. While very limited social interaction takes place among the different Dalit castes, prohibitions regarding norms of inter-dining and inter-caste marriage prevail among them too.

Friday, July 1, 2011

India: Gujarat riots records ‘destroyed’

Official records relating to the 2002 riots in India’s Gujarat state were destroyed in line with regulations, the government tells a panel probing the riots.

Documents with records of telephone calls and the movements of officials during the riots were destroyed in 2007, five years after their origin Officials say this is standard practice and in line with civil service rules.

Continue reading India: Gujarat riots records ‘destroyed’

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Indian think tank: Headley CIA/FBI agent

New Delhi-A renowned think tank of India has established clearly that David Coleman Headley is a mass murderer, an FBI/CIA agent now being protected & shielded by the Obama Administration.

CounterCurrents.org in its report states that Recent revelations confirm the fact that David Coleman Headley is a CIA-FBI operative whose task was to organize & expedite the Mumbai 26/11 terror attacks. Thus the role of the CIA, FBI & Mossad in fomenting & planning the Mumbai 26/11 terror attacks are proved beyond doubt & need to be investigated by the patriotic elements within the security apparatus & the media.

Continue reading...

Monday, April 25, 2011

Protests mount against Indian nuclear plant

Protests mount against Indian nuclear plant

SAKHRI NATE, INDIA: In the busy Indian fishing village of Sakhri Nate, it’s obvious what the locals think of the plan to build the world’s biggest nuclear power plant just across the creek.

“Say No To Nuclear Power. We Don’t Want To Get Sick,” reads one slogan in Hindi on the side of a tarpaulin-covered shack selling sweet tea and sugary snacks.

Chalked on a wall around the corner is a message for the French company that has signed a $9.3-billion deal to supply the plant’s first state-of-the-art pressurised water reactors.

Read more...

Why One Million Indians Escape From India Every Year

Any crackdown on illegal immigrants abroad or restricting quotas to Indians are a major concern to India’s politicians. The latest statistics from US Department of Homeland Security shows that the numbers of Indian illegal migrants jumped 125% since 2000! Ever wondered why Indians migrate to another countries but no one comes to India for a living? Here are some Indian facts:

Poverty Graph

According to WFP, India accounts around 50% of the world’s hungry.  (more than in the whole of Africa) and its fiscal deficit is one of the highest in the world.  India’s Global Hunger Index (GHI) score is 23.7,  a rank of 66th out of 88 countries.  India’s rating is slightly above Bangladesh but below all other South Asian nations and India is  listed under “ALARMING” category.  

Read more...

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Extremist Hindu Organization Sangh Parivar Challenges Christian Missionaries & NGOs

Large stretches on the highway between Koraput and Malkangiri districts in southern Odisha remain isolated. This highway has been the target of large number of blasts from Maoists. As a result, it is now dotted with camps of the Border Security Force and the Central Reserve Police Force. It is not too difficult to spot the contrasting images here. In pockets, adivasi women wearing vermillion marks on their foreheads can be seen ferrying their children to school.

For a long time, Christian missionaries and NGOs were the only entities that reached out to adivasis in Odisha, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Northeastern states, apart from the limited engagement of state governments. But, now another juggernaut is rolling in this ideological melting pot, where the security forces and insurgent groups, like Maoists, have taken well-defined positions.

Continue reading Extremist Hindu Organization Sangh Parivar Challenges Christian Missionaries & NGOs

Monday, April 18, 2011

Let’s Crush A Baby!

BY NATHOO RAM,
ON APRIL 18TH, 2011

An Indian ‘baba’, or healer, literally stands on the bodies of little babies claiming that this heals health problems. India also has the highest rate of forced marriages of underage girls, and systematic discrimination against citizens based on caste; women from the lowest caste are routinely raped. Male members of the lower caste are often victims of physical abuse, including death in many cases. These things happen only in India, the world’s largest democracy. The mainstream Indian media and the hordes of American and British journalists based in India don’t see these glaring little scandals because of an official policy carefully crafted to project India as the next superpower that is being groomed to serve western interests in Asia. But occasionally stories like these do come out, thanks to conscientious Indian citizens working for the rights of those ignored by the Indian government.

Continue reading Let’s Crush A Baby!

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Raymond Davis - Israeli spy "Jonathan Pollard & Indian Sarbjit Singh"

Why US is panicking in the double murder case of RAD aka Raymond Alan Davis whose real identity is still unknown? Pakistan is a friendly country and an ally. Could it be possible that RAD is also working for India or Israel? US should let the courts complete the course and than they can negotiate where he is going to serve his sentence.


Diplomatic immunity cannot be given to people whose identity is not established. It is like issuing diplomatic visa and immunity to ‘Santa Clause’?.


Legislations of a country always overrule conventions. Those who have issued visa to Raymond Davis should be tried for criminal negligence and partner in crime. Why US have not released Jonathan Pollard a former US Navy Analyst – Israeli Spy and now Israeli citizen, serving life sentence in USA? Double murder committed in Pakistan can be tried in another country’s jurisdiction and law.



Israeli Spy Jonathan Pollard


On the one hand US is expecting Pakistan to release a double murderer, a suspected spy and probably a triple agent of India-Israel and US without trail. But on the other it is not ready to release Jonathan Pollard now an Israeli citizen serving life sentence in a US prison.



On the other hand in November 1985, the FBI arrested Jonathan Pollard, a U.S. Navy intelligence analyst, on charges of selling classified material to Israel. Pollard was subsequently sentenced to life imprisonment. His wife, Anne, got five years in jail for assisting her husband.


Immediately upon Pollard's arrest, Israel apologized and explained that the operation was unauthorized. "It is Israel's policy to refrain from any intelligence activity related to the United States," an official government statement declared, "in view of the close and special relationship of friendship" between two countries. Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres stated: "Spying on the United States stands in total contradiction to our policy."


In November 1995, Israel granted Jonathan Pollard Israeli citizenship. This publicly signalled to the US, Israel's willingness to accept full responsibility for Pollard. On May 12, 1998, Israel formally acknowledged Jonathan Pollard was an official Israeli agent. This fact wiped out any remaining doubt about Jonathan Pollard's motives. Being an official agent is, by definition, the polar opposite of being a mercenary. In the same May 12, 1998 statement, the Government of Israel publicly acknowledged full responsibility for Jonathan Pollard, and indicated its commitment to his immediate repatriation to Israel.


Four Prime Ministers of Israel and three Presidents of Israel have all personally requested Jonathan Pollard's release from the Presidents of the US. Each one pledged to be personally responsible for their agent who has now served 15 years in prison under harsh conditions, and who has fully expressed his remorse. “Israel has officially acknowledged for the first time that an American Jew, Jonathan Pollard, who was arrested in the United States 13 years ago, was one of its spies”, reported BBC on 12th May, 1998. Pollard, a former intelligence analyst for the United States Navy, is serving a life sentence in North Carolina for passing classified military documents to Israel. Until now, the Israeli authorities had always denied that Pollard was working under their direction.


The admission came in a statement from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's office, and acknowledged that he was handled by high-ranking officials in a scientific relations bureau. "In light of this fact, the State of Israel acknowledges its obligation to Mr Pollard and is ready to accept full responsibility accordingly,' the statement said.


It said that Pollard had agreed to drop a petition pending in Israel’s Supreme Court asking for a formal recognition that he was indeed an agent in exchange for the announcement.” I am relieved, thankful, and honoured," Pollard's wife Esther told the Associated Press news agency by telephone from her home in Toronto, Canada.


The admission came on the eve of a visit by Mr Netanyahu to the United States to meet Jewish leaders and the Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Israeli media reported that a government committee set up by Mr Netanyahu was working out a plan to recognise Pollard as a spy and work for his release.


Several government ministers have visited Pollard in jail this past year, raising speculation that the government was taking his case more seriously. Pollard has been granted Israeli citizenship and his lawyer believes the public acknowledgment will help chances for a pardon.


In November 1985, while on the run from the US authorities, Pollard sought refuge at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, but was refused entry. Mrs Pollard has said the information her husband gave Israel over a decade ago was about the build-up of arms in neighbouring countries that some American officials did not want Israel to have.



On 24th August 2004 CNN reported, ‘The FBI has evidence that a person who has been working at high levels in the Pentagon may be a spy for Israel, senior U.S. officials have confirmed to CNN reported on 28th August 2004. The alleged "mole" working for Israel could have been in a position to influence Bush administration policy toward Iran and Iraq, one of the officials said.



Indian Spy Sarbjit Singh


Sarabjit Singh had confessed his involvement in the bomb blasts according to the court record. Pakistan has TV broadcast a confession by Singh in September 2005, in which he said, ‘he worked for India’s foreign intelligence agency (RAW) and had set off five blasts in Lahore’.


Sarabjit was arrested by the Pakistani security officials for the killings of 14 innocent people in bombings. Pakistani government had released more than 100 Indian prisoners since the coalition government came to power. Indians have sent bodies of Pakistani prisoners and always been hostile towards Pakistan.


The way Zardari government dying in one-sided love with the Indians as Musharraf; it seems they will sell everything our ancestors fought for. It seems they are in a hurry to finish the job? When was the issue of transit trade to Afghanistan from India discussed, in cabinet or parliament? When India is blocking Pakistan’s water, Mr Zardari is giving them trade transit? If President Zardari thinks that India is not a threat to Pakistan then he must be immediately removed from the Presidency for ‘mental incapacity’, as he himself admitted having suffering from irreversible and untreatable shrinking of brain disease ‘dementia’?


Since 2005 anti Pakistan right wing Indian ‘Star TV’ was running a campaign for the release of an Indian spy and terrorist Surbjiit Singh imprisoned for various bombings and killing and injuring of innocent men, women, and children in Pakistan. Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard a former US Navy analyst serving his life sentence in US prison. US has refused to release Jonathan Pollard who is now Israeli Citizen and spied for Israel for ten years. Pollard only spied for US’s closet friend but Surbjiit Singh was involved in the killings of innocent people in Pakistan. If people who conspired to kill President Musharraf could be hang why an enemy spy and terrorist should go scot free for the crimes against Pakistan?


Pakistan’s Supreme Court upheld a death sentence imposed on an Indian spy and terrorist for a bombing that killed four people in 1990, court officials said on 27th September 2005. The court rejected an appeal by Sarabjit Singh, whose relatives in India along with the government have called on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to review the case.

It was the last of four petitions filed by Singh relating to different cases including terrorism and espionage. The Supreme Court dismissed the other three. The appeal related to Singh's conviction on terrorism charges by a lower court for a July 1990 bomb blast in Lahore in which a woman and three men were killed.


Ansar Burney as interim Human Rights Minister, campaigned for the release of Kashmir Singh another Indian prisoner arrested and convicted for spying, declared his real identity as a spy in a press conference in India soon after his release.


Irony is we have not heard any protests from Ansar Burney, Asma Jahangir, I.A Rehman, Imtiaz Alam and other human rights activist regarding the illegal detention without trial and handover of ‘Dr Afia Siddiqui’ to the US and killings by the Raymond Davis?


So when an American Senator said, “Pakistanis will sell their mothers for $ dollars”. He was probably talking about people like Zardari, Gillani, Musharaf and all those who handed over Pakistani citizens without legal process. About whom he was talking about and had experience of dealing with? Only elite class, leaders, and politicians of Pakistan have dealings with US senators. Surely honourable senator was not talking about 180 million proud and brave Pakistanis because he might never met them and they don’t have $ accounts in US?

By Dr Shahid Qureshi
(Dr Shahid Qureshi is senior award wining investigative journalist and writer on security, foreign policy, and terrorism based in London)

Thursday, February 3, 2011

The Numbers Game

An article in the Washington Post discusses Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal (a popular subject!) and makes the startling disclosure that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has doubled and that its delivery system has improved vastly. Predictably there is no comment or denial from Pakistan because none is needed. Indeed if that is what people want to believe then so be it. Some in Pakistan have swallowed the bait hook, line and sinker and started commenting and criticizing this increase going on in difficult economic times without pausing to consider the veracity of the report by a foreign correspondent.

Pakistan does not publicly discuss its nuclear program disclosing only what is absolutely necessary for reassurance about its command and control and custodial security. A little research can however turn up enough to indicate that Pakistan will not carry out further nuclear tests, that it’s stance on ‘no first use’ is based on clearly stated ‘red lines’ and India’s policies on limited war and cold start operations exploiting conventional force superiority and that Pakistan is for minimum credible deterrence against the threat from India. Pakistan does not have an aggressive use of force strategy involving nuclear weapons. It is no secret that Pakistan and India have ongoing enrichment programs and are engaged in constant improvement of delivery systems. India has gained an enormous advantage with the Indo-US Nuclear agreement that gives it access to fuel while a number of weapon oriented reactors remain outside safeguards. At current rates India is expected to have over 280 nuclear weapons by 2020. Pakistan has suggested a ‘strategic restraint regime’ but India brings in the trilateral factor by stating that it is threatened by China. Pakistan is willing to discuss restraint even in a trilateral context. India is also moving towards SLBM’s and is not a status quo state as far as introduction of new technology and systems is concerned. Isolating Pakistan for doing something that is ongoing in India and other countries is therefore part of a larger Pakistan specific design.

Pakistan is placed in the dock for its opposition to the FMCT (Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty). Pakistan is for a more comprehensive FMT (Fissile Missile Treaty) that takes into account existing stockpiles but because of verification issues India and others oppose this. The Indo-US agreement giving India a vastly improved capacity for increasing stockpiles drives the Pakistani stance on FMCT---a stance that India favored till it got this advantage through the discriminatory agreement from the US. Pakistan’s quest for energy through nuclear reactors from China contracted earlier and therefore outside NSG procedures is being repeatedly opposed by India acting as the ‘front man’ for the US. There is no discussion of the enormous boost to nuclear trade that has resulted as a spin-off from the Indo-US Agreement and the contractual arrangements being made by India with a number of countries. Surprisingly with all asymmetric balance in its favor India is still insecure and feels threatened by Pakistan’s comparatively modest requirements. The terror threat to Pakistani nukes and thence to India and the US is regularly invoked as a mantra especially in the wake of the high profile assassination in Pakistan that is being used by India and by the US to stoke fears of terrorist or extremist inroads into the security apparatus for strategic assets. The US should be aware of the custodial controls in place but India’s motive is to bring into question the civil-military relations in Pakistan by insisting that there should be civilian control—something that will come but at a pace to be determined by Pakistan and not India. The other whip used is the past proliferation episode that is repeatedly floated with new ‘discoveries’—even though it is a dead issue for Pakistan. Pakistan has made it clear that it is supportive of all non-proliferation regimes as long as they are non-discriminatory.

Pakistanis who are deep into military and intelligence bashing because their new found freedom to do so gives them a good macho feel should seriously consider whose interest they are serving. Constructive criticism certainly helps and should go on but doing what others want us to do will be counter- productive. A deeper insight into Pakistan’s future security policy is required especially by those who want Pakistan to roll over and play dead just because it is in a transitional phase and has vulnerabilities that are being ruthlessly exploited by others.

By Ghalib Sultan

Nuclear tension in South Asia

The cold war between India and Pakistan got accentuated when it was declared by the Washington Post that Pakistan has achieved a nuclear arsenal of over a 100 warheads which has made them the 5th largest Nuclear power, ahead of both France and England. This act of proliferation came about as a result of Pakistan’s retaliation to the inclusion of India as a member of key multilateral export control regimes that allows trade in nuclear and other materials and the unsuccessful ‘5th generation stealth fighter’ deal between India and United states.

The recent visit of Barack Obama to India had already got Pakistan concerned over its exclusion from the itinerary of Obama’s short tour of South Asia; even though it is considered to be a front line ally and has bore the brunt of the War on Terror in Afghanistan. Furthermore, the announcement made by the US for its support of the Indian waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the Missile Technology Control Regime, the Australian Group (which works to reduce the spread of chemical and biological warfare) and the Wassenaar Arrangement, a joint effort by many nations to control the transfer of traditional arms and dual-use technology, has become a major cause of concern for Pakistan.

Four years ago, the Pakistani arsenal was estimated at 30 to 60 warheads. Based on recently accelerated production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, it is believed that Pakistan has actually managed to double its stockpile with current estimates of up to 110 warheads. According to certain unconfirmed reports, some Pakistani officials have indicated the amount to be even more (as it plays up to Pakistan’s advantage to overstate the number o f nuclear warheads) since it faces a comparative disadvantage in conventional warfare capabilities to India.

Given that both India and Pakistan are not signatories of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, Islamabad believes that Washington's decision to support Indian membership of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group following its agreement to help India develop its civil nuclear power industry will help New Delhi to further increase its nuclear weapon arsenal. While Pakistan has produced more nuclear weapons, India is believed to have larger existing stockpiles of such fissile material for future weapons. The 2008 US-India civil nuclear cooperation agreement further enhanced the Indian long term capability to catch-up or even outrun their neighbors in the near future. On the other hand, Pakistan’s demands for a similar deal have been deflected by the US because of the instability within the country and fears of proliferation, or possible terrorist attempts to seize nuclear materials. This biased attitude of the United States has escalated the arms race in South Asia and it also poses a dilemma for the Obama administration, which has worked to improve its economic, political and military ties with India while seeking to deepen its relationship with Pakistan as a crucial component of its Afghanistan war strategy. The administration is caught between Pakistani suspicions that the US aims to control or limit its weapons program and favoring India because of its large markets.

Zamir Akram, who is Pakistan's permanent representative to the Conference on Disarmament, indicated that these recent developments would destabilize the security environment in South Asia and membership of the NSG will enable India to further expand upon its nuclear co-operation agreements and enhance its nuclear capability. As a consequence and a containment measure, Pakistan will be forced to take necessary steps to ensure the credibility of its deterrence. Furthermore, Pakistan's National Command Authority, headed by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and a retired army general, has voiced concerns over Pakistan’s security situation and implications of the new civil nuclear co-operation deal between India and the US. One of the legitimate concerns for Pakistan is that with these recent developments India is likely to become an integral part of the system regulating nuclear technology. If that happens, even getting any equipment such as civilian reactors for power generation will be completely impossible. Given the ugly history between the two nations, the concerns shown by Pakistan over this new found partnership between US and India are legitimate and can cause havoc to the status quo of the peace situation in the subcontinent.

This strategy of rapid development of nuclear weapons and augmentation of stockpiles by both the countries has to come to an end to ensure a peaceful and nuclear free South Asia. Pakistan has its reasons for the doubling of its nuclear arsenal, and it is the only thing which still maintains the tenuous balance in this politically, economically and geo-strategically sensitive region. Furthermore, the hypocritical role played by the United States of just paying lip service to Pakistan assistance in the War on Terror, all the while enhancing India’s comparatively superior conventional warfare capabilities, have given Pakistan more than one reason to build up its arsenal and be prepared for the worst.

The only plausible solution to this conundrum is bilateral or trilateral dialogues that are productive, result-oriented and meaningful, and wholeheartedly pursued between all the relevant parties to maintain stability and peace in this region. There are two major incentives that seem to have particular appeal to Pakistan. One is a civilian nuclear energy deal like that being provided to India, with full safeguards on associated reactors. Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution also counts this as a significant game-changer for the US-Pakistan relationship as well as for Pakistan's motivations in the War on Terror. Pakistan's progress on export controls in the wake of the A.Q. Khan debacle has been good enough so far to allow a provisional approval of such a deal; if other things fall into place as well, including Islamabad’s compliance with any future fissile production cutoff treaty. Second is a free trade accord. Struggling economically, Pakistan needs such a booster shot in the arm, and a trade deal could arguably do even more than aid at this point. The Obama Administration should offer Pakistan a civilian nuclear energy deal as well as a trade program under a “much more expansive” US relationship with the key regional country as part of efforts to win back Pakistan’s trust and cooperation, and toward a successful outcome of the Afghan conflict.

Pakistan has always felt insecure about the diplomatic relationship between the US and India, and such an initiative – if ever made by the Obama administration can actually fend off such insecurities. But the key point is that Pakistan should be told that these deals will only be possible if the United States and its allies prevail in Afghanistan. Small gestures of greater helpfulness are not adequate; bottom-line results are what count and what are needed. If Afghanistan turns around in a year or two, the deals can be set in motion and implemented over a longer period that will allow the United States to continually monitor subsequent Pakistani cooperation in the war. These terms are really just common sense, and they are based on political realism about America's domestic politics as well as its strategic interests, since there is no way the Congress would support such a nuclear deal if Pakistani policy ultimately contributed to US losing the war in Afghanistan.

The right policy for the Obama administration would be to go forward with their mission of building trust with Pakistan. The most recent strategic dialogue in Washington which proposed incremental increase of aid with a new five-year $2 billion aid package, encouraging Pakistan-India dialogue which could ultimately persuade Islamabad for safely moving its military forces from its eastern border to its western regions and coordinating militarily across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region. These policy measures if implemented properly would not only help US attain a positive outcome of the War in Afghanistan, but in fact would actually prove to be a catalyst for attaining a peaceful and nuclear free South Asia.

By Deepika Jaitley

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

India: Overhaul Abusive Counterterrorism Tactics

Torture and Forced Confessions Alienate Populations, Bolster Militant Groups

FEBRUARY 2, 2011

Indian police are under tremendous pressure to identify the perpetrators of horrific attacks, but they need to do so without resorting to the use of arbitrary arrests and torture to coerce confessions. Not only do such unlawful responses alienate local populations, they risk allowing the real perpetrators to remain free and pose an ongoing threat to public safety.

Meenakshi Ganguly, South Asia director
(New Delhi) - The Indian government should reform its justice system to ensure that abuses do not take place during counterterrorism efforts, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today. While Indian authorities have taken recent steps to prevent wrongful accusations of terrorism, the government should also investigate the many allegations of torture and coerced confessions of terrorism suspects and hold those responsible to account.

The 106-page report, "The ‘Anti-Nationals': Arbitrary Detention and Torture of Terrorism Suspects in India," documents consistent abuse by Indian security forces in their response to the scourge of terrorism attacks. State police, jail officials, and other authorities have committed a range of human rights violations, including arbitrary arrest and detention, torture, and religious discrimination. The report details the mistreatment of alleged members of the Indian Mujahideen, a militant Islamist group that since 2008 has claimed responsibility for six bombings and other deadly attacks, as well as that of Hindu nationalist suspects charged in a separate bombing in 2008.

"Indian police are under tremendous pressure to identify the perpetrators of horrific attacks, but they need to do so without resorting to the use of arbitrary arrests and torture to coerce confessions," said Meenakshi Ganguly, South Asia director at Human Rights Watch. "Not only do such unlawful responses alienate local populations, they risk allowing the real perpetrators to remain free and pose an ongoing threat to public safety."

"The ‘Anti-Nationals'" focuses on the aftermath of three deadly bombings of major Indian cities in 2008 for which the Indian Mujahideen claimed responsibility. At least 152 people died and hundreds of others were injured in the synchronized bombings of markets, hospitals, and other public places in Jaipur on May 13, Ahmedabad on July 26, and New Delhi on September 13 of that year. The report is based on more than 160 interviews with suspects, their relatives and lawyers, civil society activists, security experts, and law enforcement officials in New Delhi, as well as in the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.

In sweeps across the country, state police, usually Anti-Terrorism Squads, brought in scores of Muslim men for questioning and promptly labeled many "anti-national" - implying they were unpatriotic. The police ultimately charged more than 70 alleged Indian Mujahideen members or associates from nine states in the 2008 attacks and in a related attempted attack on the port city of Surat in July 2008. All were held without bail.

In some states, police held suspects for days or even weeks without registering their arrest, in an apparent effort to get them to confess. Police in Gujarat and Delhi also manipulated criminal procedures to allow them to hold suspects for interrogation well beyond the initial 15-day legal limit after arrest. Many detainees have alleged they were the victims of torture, including the use of electric shocks. A released suspect held in a lockup of the Ahmedabad Crime Branch of the Gujarat state police, where some of the worst abuses occurred, said that detainees were kept blindfolded and shackled with their arms crossed over their knees. Detainees or their relatives also said they were beaten, and threatened with arrest and mistreatment of family members if they did not cooperate.

Several suspects alleged that police made them sign blank sheets of paper that they feared were used for confessions or woke them up at night to make them repeat a police version of events. Many suspects also were denied access to lawyers for days or weeks after their arrest, in violation of Indian and international law. Upon finally meeting with counsel, the suspects often were not allowed to speak with lawyers out of earshot of guards. Some lawyers defending Muslim terrorism suspects were threatened or physically attacked by Hindu extremists, many of them fellow lawyers, who labeled them unpatriotic.

The report also includes credible allegations that some of the 11 Hindus arrested for a separate 2008 bombing incident in the city of Malegaon, Maharashtra state, were also subjected to arbitrary detention, torture, and religion-based ill-treatment. One Hindu suspect, a self-styled theologian, alleged that during one torture session, police forced what they said was beef, which is forbidden to Hindus, down his throat.

While the worst abuses occurred after arrest in police custody, Human Rights Watch also found that dozens of suspects were also beaten in 2009 after being transferred to jails in Ahmedabad and Jaipur. They also faced indifference or bias in court proceedings if they complained of mistreatment.

"Abuses of suspects detained in connection with the 2008 bombings occurred at every stage of custody, from police lock-ups where many were tortured, to jails where they were beaten, to courthouses where magistrates often ignored their complaints," said Ganguly. "This is what we would expect from China. The world's largest democracy can do better."

In addition, Human Rights Watch also called on the Indian authorities to immediately launch a thorough and impartial investigation into the case of nine Muslim men held as suspects for more than four years and allegedly tortured in connection with deadly bombings in 2006 at a Muslim cemetery in Malegaon. Investigations in late 2010 and early 2011 revealed that Hindu extremists are now the lead suspects in that attack and other major bombings in 2006-07 in India previously attributed to Islamist militant groups. The attacks at mosques in Hyderabad and Amjer, on a passenger train linking Pakistan to India, and at the cemetery in Malegaon killed at least 115 people and injured nearly 350 others.

The National Human Rights Commission, the Indian government body that is officially mandated to investigate allegations of human rights violations, has responded tepidly to complaints involving terrorism suspects, Human Rights Watch said. Most glaring was its investigation into the so-called Batla House encounter, a police raid after the Delhi bombings of September 2008 in which two Indian Mujahideen suspects died in circumstances that aroused suspicion. Ordered by the Delhi High Court to probe the two suspects' deaths after ignoring its own guidelines that require all killings to be investigated, the Commission produced a report that exonerated police while relying almost exclusively on the police version of events. A new and more serious inquiry into the causes of death is needed, Human Rights Watch said.

"The National Human Rights Commission has lost its voice when it comes to counterterrorism abuses," said Ganguly.

The spate of 2008 bombings was overshadowed by the November 26, 2008 attack on the entertainment and commercial hub of Mumbai. In response, India's parliament in December 2008 passed amendments likely to result in abuse of terrorism suspects and the infringement of basic due process rights. Amendments to the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) contain sweeping, vaguely worded definitions of terrorism, vastly increase police powers of search and arrest, and double the maximum period of pre-charge detention for terrorism suspects to 180 days, well beyond internationally accepted limits. The amendments mirror provisions of the notorious Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA), a law the ruling Congress Party repealed in 2004 because it encouraged abuses.

However, Human Rights Watch said that the authorities have shown welcome restraint in responding to three more recent attacks in 2010 that they attributed to the Indian Mujahideen. These include a bombing in the city of Pune in February that killed 17 people at a restaurant frequented by foreigners; a motorcycle drive-by shooting in New Delhi in September that injured two Taiwanese tourists; and a bombing in December in Varanasi, Hinduism's holiest city and a popular tourist site, that killed a one-year-old child and woman in her sixties.

"While the authorities' recent responses to attacks are encouraging, if India is to achieve long-term success in countering militant violence, it will need to transform individual acts of restraint and respect for the law into institutional changes," Ganguly said. "That includes the police putting an end to the ugly assumption, all too common after the 2008 bombings, that only Muslim groups were likely suspects in the attacks."

Human Rights Watch sets out detailed recommendations for reform to the Indian government, state governments, and state police.

They include:

Repeal unlawful provisions of counterterrorism laws, including overly broad definitions of terrorism, expanded police powers of search and seizure, the presumption of guilt under certain circumstances, and draconian pre-charge detention periods.
Enact the pending Prevention of Torture Bill, but only after ensuring it conforms with the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.
Sign into law criminal procedure amendments, already passed by parliament, requiring the police to record a formal reason for making a warrantless arrest - thereby closing a glaring legal loophole that fuels impunity.
Professionalize India's police forces and codify the full set of guidelines on arrest and detention for police officers that are contained in the landmark 1997 Supreme Court case D.K. Basu.
Fully investigate allegations of wrongdoing by police and other officials, including the accusations of alleged Indian Mujahideen suspects and Muslims previously rounded up in attacks now blamed on Hindu extremists, to end the culture of impunity for crimes against terrorism suspects and others in India.

Selected Accounts From "The ‘Anti-Nationals'"

"The policeman said to me, ‘Please speak to your son. Tell him that he must give us a few names. Then we will let him go.' But my son told me, ‘I cannot give any names wrongfully.' The police said to me, ‘Your son's life will be ruined. Tell him to identify some people.' "
- A father whose son was detained for the 2008 Ahmedabad bombings, July 2009

"We were made to wear dark masks. I had to stand with my hands extended horizontally and if they came down, the police would beat me. Whenever they interrogated me and they felt that the answer was improper, they beat me with the wooden stick or the leather belt or whatever they liked.... I was told by the police department, ‘If you do not cooperate, we will take custody of all of your family....' I was so scared I did not know what would happen and what to do or not to do. I had no hope of coming out."
- An Indian Mujahideen suspect describing his 2008 detention in an Ahmedabad Crime Branch police lockup

"The police said that they would release Shakeel only when Raziq comes. But ... he had left his wife with our relatives and disappeared."
- A mother whose son was unlawfully detained for a month in 2008 while police sought his brother

"The very first question was: ‘Why have you people become anti-national? You people are bloody Pakistanis.' They kept on targeting my religion, actually my beliefs, my practices."
- A young Muslim professional on his interrogation in 2008 by the Delhi Special Cell police

"When I asked my son if he was tortured, he said, ‘They are hardly going to treat me with love. They want to build the case....They used to make us memorize a story of the police version of the case. We were not allowed to sleep until we could recite the police version.' "
- Nisar Ahmed, whose son Saqib Nisar has been charged for his role in the 2008 bombings