Friday, August 26, 2011
Silent Revolution in Pakistan: Redefining Identity
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Imran Khan’s revolution
Now this is the emerging world that Imran Khan has set out to turn around on the back of the groundswell of his popularity amongst largely urban youth. Given the rising anti-US sentiment, mainly in urban Pakistan, and with alleged help from certain powerful quarters that share his vision for an Islamic welfare state, where women and minorities are seen as burden, he is very likely to win more and more converts as he pushes ahead. And the first step in doing so is to cut off Nato’s supplies into Afghanistan, as proposed by him. The next would be to rescind Pakistan’s commitment to being a partner in America’s war on terror, because we’re a state armed with nukes, not Iraq or Afghanistan that could be invaded. In doing so he forgets one critical aspect: who will finance this newfound independence and the flagging about of national honour? According to the political analyst, Khaled Ahmed, Pakistan only succeeds if it succeeds economically. He goes on to say that our economic success hinges very much on whether we give trade passage to willing, buying countries. This may mean giving passage to India and Central Asia from east to west and vice versa, China from north to south and vice versa, and the US and others as and when they need such a passage through Pakistan. Denying this passage will mean that the international community will have to go around us and make other, perhaps more expensive arrangements, like India has done for its oil supplies. The US too can bypass Pakistan by exploring more expensive routes for Nato supplies but in the process it can isolate Pakistan completely, and bring its already troubled economy to a grinding halt. It will not need to militarily invade Pakistan, for we will have accomplished the needful ourselves. Where will then the urban youth, and those nouveau riche TV anchors will go to seek their comforts, more opportunities to prosper and live a better, more promising life, with less loadshedding, more air conditioning and international mobility? A revolution to regain national honour by asserting independence in an increasingly interdependent world will surely result in economic blockade and a nation so inclined left to rot in its own isolation, making it all the more irrelevant to the rest of the world. Drone attacks must stop but we have to remove the bait that brings them on in the first place. In order to start putting things right, one does not start by blocking the roads or threatening to march on the capital to bring down an allegedly corrupt and inept government that has failed to deliver. Who else but Imran Khan should know that to treat cancer he had to build a well-equipped modern hospital instead of destroying the ones that were there and could not provide the needed treatment. The positive energy that went into building that state of the art treatment facility is what is required at the national level to start setting things right; an overdose of radical ideology just won’t cut it. It does not get any simpler than that.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Will Gaddafi escape from Libya on this plush private jet?
Rumours have been rife over the past few days that Colonel Gaddafi is ready to quit Libya - and here is the jet he may use to make his escape abroad.
On Monday night it was reported the dictator was ready to relinquish his 41-year rule after proposing a meeting of the Libyan parliament to agree a transition period to pave the way for him to step down, according to Al Jazeera, the Arab TV network.
His terms include immunity from criminal prosecution and a pile of cash.
If Gaddafi and his family were to fly out of the country, they could well do so on on a United Aviation jet, such as the Bombardier Challenge 8,500.
The jet company, owned by the Libyan government, is also in possession of a Bombardier Global 5,000 and a Bombardier Challenge 3,000, which the dictator could utilise.
Gaddafi allegedly sent Jadallah Azzouz Talhi, a former prime minister, to meet Libyan rebels to work out the fine print of a deal to stand down earlier this week.
The offer proposed that the dictator would hand over power to a committee formed by the General People’s Congress.
However, the rebel interim council, based in the eastern city of Benghazi, reportedly rejected the offer because such an ‘honourable’ exit would offend Gaddafi’s victims. A source close to the rebel council said he had heard that ‘one formula being proposed by the other side would see Gaddafi hand power to the head of parliament and leave the country with a certain guaranteed sum of money’.
He added: ‘I was told that this issue of money is a serious obstacle from the national council’s point of view.’
Meanwhile, Colonel Gaddafi's forces today blasted an oil terminal to smithereens as Libya's bloody civil war entered its blackest day.
Rebels retaliated by firing back with rockets as a fireball exploded from one of the oil tanks and the sky above the Es Sider terminal, in the east of the country, filled with hideous smoke.
A witness said one of the smoke plumes was the biggest he had seen in the conflict so far.
The fresh onslaught came as Gaddafi deployed tanks and snipers to 'shoot anything that moves'.
Forces loyal to the Libyan dictator poured into the city of Zawiyah in a desperate bid to oust the hardcore band of protesters and army defectors who have taken control.
Last night, the increasingly crazed despot gave his fourth rambling TV interview since protests began on February 15.
Returning to familiar themes, the Libyan leader said the rebels wanted to pave the way for a new colonial era that would allow Britain, France and the United States to divide up the country and control its oil wealth.
Making reference obliquely to unrest in the Arab world and elsewhere, he said: 'How can (Libyan) parents allow Tunisians, Egyptians, Algerians and Afghans to enrol your children?'
He said rebels were drug-addled youths and Al Qaeda-backed terrorists. One of his sons said if Gaddafi bowed to pressure and quit, Libya would descend into civil war.
He promised to fight any attempt to impose a no-fly zone on the country which he said would merely be an excuse by the West to seize Libya's oil deposits.
'If Al Qaeda seizes Libya, that will amount to a huge disaster,' Gaddafi said. 'If they (Al Qaeda fighters) take this place over, the whole region, including Israel, will be dragged into chaos,' he said.
'Then Bin Laden may seize all of north Africa that faces Europe.'
The extravagant bathroom of the private plane. Gaddafi wants immunity from criminal prosecution and a pile of cash before he considers jetting off Earlier today, there were reports that three private jets owned by Gaddafi had left Libya for Vienna, Athens and Egypt. Greek officials said they spotted one Libyan Airlines Falcon 900 jet as it briefly entered airspace for around 15 minutes earlier this morning. The sightings prompted speculation that Gaddafi or members of his family have fled the country. However, it later emerged that one aircraft had landed in Egypt carrying the head of the Libyan Authority for Supply and Logistics, Major-General Abdel Rahman Ben Ali al-Sayyid al-Zawy, who was carrying a message from Gaddafi.
Muammar Gaddafi: Libyan rebels 'brainwashed' - video
In a speech to members of Libya's Zentan tribe, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi says foreign elements urged Libyan youngsters to turn against their country
Monday, February 28, 2011
'US unable to hijack Middle East uprising'
Friday, February 11, 2011
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
A 'contagious' revolt
Since January 25, 2011, the world has been captivated by developments in Egypt. One after the other, like the domino effect, major cities in Egypt erupted in protests, calling for the removal of the Mubarak regime. Reminiscent of the color revolutions that took place in Eastern Europe during the twilight of President Bush's administration, the Egyptian situation has caused consternation for a lot of international actors, and analysts are on the edges of their seats trying to determine what this sociopolitical movement means for democracy in the middle east, and for political rights in the modern Muslim world at large.
There are a lot of causal factors that point to the current turmoil in Egypt. Most believe that it was Hosni Mubarak's elongated rule that will come to 30 years in power if he continues till October 2011. Almost all of this administration has been under emergency rule, which says a lot about the democratic process in Egypt and the freedoms Egyptian citizens enjoy - despite being allied to the United States. Even though Egypt has seen two revolutions - one in 1919 and another in 1952 which brought Gamal Abdel Nasser to power - the current regime is also descended from the 'revolutionary' legitimacy of the Nasser and Sadat eras. On January 21st, Ahmad Aggour wrote that Egyptians should learn a lesson from the Tunisians and send Mubarak packing, just like Zine el Abidine ben Ali.
It seems that the current revolution is designed to install a true democracy of the Egyptian people, thereby upturning the status quo established by the July 23 Revolution of 1952.
Larbi Sadiki has written an interesting opinion piece in Al Jazeera, where he labels the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions as 'bread intifadas'. Claiming that the real terror facing Muslim societies is that of political, social and economic marginalisation, Sadiki argues that these bread riots come and go but regimes stay. Countries like Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia continue to be "the fodder of chaos in the absence of social justice, culturally sensitive sustainable development and democratic mediating networks and civic channels of socio-political bargaining and inclusion". "Oppositions and dissidents have not yet learned how to infiltrate governments and build strong political identities and power bases. This is one reason why the protests that produced 'Velvet revolutions' elsewhere seem to be absent in the Arab world."
Sadiki says that bread uprisings have positive and negative outcomes: "On the positive side, they act as elections, as plebiscites on performance, as an airing of public anger, they issue verdicts on failed policies and send stress messages to rulers".
There are also concerns about the future of Egypt after Mubarak - especially for the US and Israel, who counted Mubarak's Egypt as a firm ally. Mubarak and his newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman were instrumental in the peace dealings between the Israelis and different factions of the Palestinians (Hamas and Fatah), and Suleiman was considered Israel's point-man in Egypt while he was chief of military intelligence. This has led to rumours that if Mubarak steps down, he is most likely to go into exile in Tel Aviv.
All of this points to the opposition to Mubarak's pro-West regime from the Muslim Brotherhood - the Ikhwan-ul-Muslimeen - which seemed to be the main force behind the January 25th protests, except for the fact that a more progressive and pluralistic constituency is out on the streets, countering the Ikhwan's "Allahu Akbar" chants with "Muslim, Christian, We're all Egyptian". Resonating patriotism and renewed inter-religious harmony is evident after the recent attacks on Egyptian Copts, and the protesters are keen to show that they are fighting for their country, and not specifically to install an Islamic government - an outcome the US is keen to avoid. The Muslim Brotherhood has also backed the consensus Opposition candidate, Mohamad ElBaradei, to negotiate with the regime - this step has led to some erosion in ElBaradei's standing as a moderate, liberal, progressive alternative to Mubarak who will be more sensitive to popular demands.
Mubarak's reactions to the uprising have not been promising; he dismissed his 'government' and replaced his prime minister, but the most important development was the appointment of a Vice President. Anwar Sadat appointed Mubarak as his Vice President in February 1981, and Sadat was assassinated in October of that year. Conspiracy theorists are also saying that if Mubarak continues, Suleiman may contemplate "bumping Mubarak off" just like Mubarak "bumped off" Sadat. Egyptians only believe this if they convince themselves of an Israeli hand behind these transformations at the top echelons of Egyptian power.
Regional and international reactions are as confused as they could be. The US doesn't want to see Mubarak leave, but at the same time, it is urging Mubarak to give concessions, restore freedom of expression and the internet, and allow democracy and human rights to flourish. However, the CIA is busy establishing Suleiman as the go-to figure in Egypt, as the new Egyptian government has prominent faces from the same regime who are also well-connected to the Armed Forces - Mubarak and his new Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik both belonged to the Air Force. Especially after Najib Mikati, a Hezbollah-backed billionaire, is poised to become Prime Minister of Lebanon, it seems that Israel will not be willing to allow another one of its Muslim neighbours to shift towards the political right.
On Day seven of the protests, the protesters have called for a million-man march in Cairo, while Alexandria, Suez and other major Egyptian cities are waking up to this new revolution. Everyone, including the Egyptians on the streets, acknowledge that the Army holds the keys to any future solution, and the Army itself realizes that an important transformation is taking place and it should not be left out of it. The Egyptian police retreated from the streets in the first few days of the Cairo protests, and the Army was called out to restore order. Egyptian policemen, especially from the feared and loathed secret services, continued to harass protesters, and some policemen in plainclothes were also caught shoplifting and were handed over to the authorities. The Egyptian Army exercised utmost restraint in the use of force, and imposed curfews despite thousands of citizens violating the curfew at Tahrir Square. One placard at the protests urged the Army to "decide between Egypt and Mubarak", summing up the predicament the Egyptian Army itself would be facing at this point in time. The lower echelons are sympathetic to the people on the streets, and the rank-and-file of the Armed Forces are both professional and patriotic, but the top brass and generals' proximity to the current regime continues to draw the ire of the protesters, who may urge the soldiers to mutiny if the generals continue to support Mubarak.
The Pakistan government first stated via the Foreign Office that Pakistani families in Cairo are safe, but on the fifth day of protests, the Foreign Office and Pakistan Air Force extricated 152 Pakistani families from Egypt. While this says a lot - or nothing at all - about the state of affairs and governance in Pakistan, many civil society activists, commentators and pundits are wondering whether a revolution along the lines of Tunisia and Egypt possible in Pakistan, or not. Some say that the Pakistani people should learn from the Egyptians and make a decisive choice. Others say that the conditions and circumstances are not conducive for a revolution the likes of which has strangled Egyptian society.
The Pakistan government has blocked Blackberry Enterprise services for foreign missions, embassies, high commissions, etc. in an apparent attempt to exercise regulatory control over the telecommunication infrastructure in Pakistan, and to keep a lid on undesirable news reaching the outside world. The PTA has allegedly denied receiving such orders, but such a denial hasn't restored the diplomats' BES services. Regulatory checks and balances of such a nature were also utilized by the judiciary when it ordered a ban on Facebook, and authorized PTA to implement the ban - however ineffectively. While Pakistani netizens developed workarounds and continue to interact with social media websites, the ban only reminded people of how difficult it will continue to be for freedoms in Pakistan - especially for free speech and the freedom of expression. One might say that an Egyptian revolution is possible in Pakistan if the government - sensing mass chaos - enforces a ban on the use of Facebook, Twitter, Google Talk, Skype, and other social media websites and connectivity systems. Such an attack on the internet use of Pakistani citizens - most of whom cannot spend a day without using the internet - will definitely bring these people out on the streets; out of sheer boredom if not incensed at the denial to use these harmless mediums of expression.
A greater revolt can be fomented if SMSes and mobile phone communications are also disrupted - while the PTA and existing PTCL infrastructure would most likely blame this on degradation of facilities, and would be partially telling the truth in doing so - it will bring out greater numbers of Pakistanis on the streets (including the religious fanatics, the extremists and the fundamentalists) because Pakistan is a country where even in 2011, 11 people are joining the national cellular network, more than 430,000 SMS are sent and approximately 160,000 calls made in every single minute. Denying Pakistanis these services will definitely leave them with nothing to do - thus giving them either option or impetus to come out on the streets and protest against whatever they want to protest against, be it corruption, misgovernance, terrorism, extremism, Americanism, liberalism, and so forth. In any case, the religious parties will have more mass support and momentum, and as the opportunistic activities of the PML-Q have shown, most liberal and secular parties will join and support the fray, not create their own momentum for other constituents to join in - despite liberal political leaders like Altaf Hussain calling for revolution in every way possible. In this way, the liberals and seculars will be politically marginalised as their politicians will run to the religious right so as to garner greater voting banks with more guarantees and more stability. This will only strengthen the religious right - and their extremist extensions - in case of a Pakistani revolution.
What would the Pakistani Army do in such circumstances? It is well known that the jihad mentality exists in the Armed Forces first and foremost, so many elements sympathetic to the religious right exist within the soldierly rank-and-file as well as in the general staff. The Army - seeing that fundamentalists are leading the revolution - will think twice about taking an overly liberal or Westernized approach, and if the liberal progressives cannot take the lead, the Army will be forced to bargain for a future with a definite role for religious fundamentalists in the corridors of power. Upon such a travesty taking place, the fundamentalists will have to decide whether they align themselves with the Taliban, or take a balanced approach and oppose the Taliban's antics in Pakistan - if they decide for the former, then Pakistan will go the way of Afghanistan, and if they decide the latter, then we can see some composite solution the likes of which Imran Khan has been harping on about for a few years now.
In conclusion, one must refer to President Kennedy's timeless quote to sum up the current boiling situation in Egypt and the Muslim world at large: Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable.