What the Army Wants

Spearhead Analysis — 22.12.11

 

The media is going bananas with all kinds of theories and scenarios. There is talk of some kind of move afoot to oust the elected President-either by impeachment or by using the incapacitation clause in the constitution. For the first you need a two-thirds majority and for the second you need to establish that the President is incapacitated. There is no way that either of these conditions can be met. The unconstitutional method of a military coup is out of the question in the present environment unless there is a catastrophe. The President is the driving force behind the political coalition that is the government in Pakistan and all are agreed that the change they want can only come through the ballot box.

There is the rumor about a civil-military confrontation over the memo-gate affair. The media is going to great lengths to point out that the military and the government are on a collision course. The reality is that the government asked the Pakistan Ambassador to the US to resign so that the matter could be processed and a conclusion reached. The opposition took the matter to the Supreme Court while the government sent it to the Parliamentary Committee for Security. The matter is proceeding on both tracks. The Army Chief and The Director General ISI have given written responses to the Supreme Court because the Supreme Court had directly asked them for their views. If the Parliamentary Committee asks them they will no doubt respond positively. Both the government and the military want the matter to reach conclusion because of the inherent implications. The Supreme Court is on record as having said in an earlier case that they will not act to derail the system.

There have been statements from responsible people asking for the resignation of the ISI chief because of the allegation made that he visited Arab capitals to solicit support for ousting the government. The methodology to do this has not been spelt out nor has anyone considered exactly how such support could be extended and to whom. The reason being given for the demand is that because the Ambassador resigned therefore the ISI chief should also resign. The difference, of course is that the Memo was investigated and found to be a reality and that this was confirmed by a retired US general who also admitted being the courier. The investigations now being made may well exonerate the Ambassador. The ISI has denied the allegation, called it baseless and sent a legal notice to the British tabloid that made the allegation. The government may investigate the matter if it has any reason to doubt what has been stated.

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