The Numbers Game

An article in the Washington Post discusses Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal (a popular subject!) and makes the startling disclosure that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has doubled and that its delivery system has improved vastly. Predictably there is no comment or denial from Pakistan because none is needed. Indeed if that is what people want to believe then so be it. Some in Pakistan have swallowed the bait hook, line and sinker and started commenting and criticizing this increase going on in difficult economic times without pausing to consider the veracity of the report by a foreign correspondent.

Pakistan does not publicly discuss its nuclear program disclosing only what is absolutely necessary for reassurance about its command and control and custodial security. A little research can however turn up enough to indicate that Pakistan will not carry out further nuclear tests, that it’s stance on ‘no first use’ is based on clearly stated ‘red lines’ and India’s policies on limited war and cold start operations exploiting conventional force superiority and that Pakistan is for minimum credible deterrence against the threat from India. Pakistan does not have an aggressive use of force strategy involving nuclear weapons. It is no secret that Pakistan and India have ongoing enrichment programs and are engaged in constant improvement of delivery systems. India has gained an enormous advantage with the Indo-US Nuclear agreement that gives it access to fuel while a number of weapon oriented reactors remain outside safeguards. At current rates India is expected to have over 280 nuclear weapons by 2020. Pakistan has suggested a ‘strategic restraint regime’ but India brings in the trilateral factor by stating that it is threatened by China. Pakistan is willing to discuss restraint even in a trilateral context. India is also moving towards SLBM’s and is not a status quo state as far as introduction of new technology and systems is concerned. Isolating Pakistan for doing something that is ongoing in India and other countries is therefore part of a larger Pakistan specific design.

Pakistan is placed in the dock for its opposition to the FMCT (Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty). Pakistan is for a more comprehensive FMT (Fissile Missile Treaty) that takes into account existing stockpiles but because of verification issues India and others oppose this. The Indo-US agreement giving India a vastly improved capacity for increasing stockpiles drives the Pakistani stance on FMCT---a stance that India favored till it got this advantage through the discriminatory agreement from the US. Pakistan’s quest for energy through nuclear reactors from China contracted earlier and therefore outside NSG procedures is being repeatedly opposed by India acting as the ‘front man’ for the US. There is no discussion of the enormous boost to nuclear trade that has resulted as a spin-off from the Indo-US Agreement and the contractual arrangements being made by India with a number of countries. Surprisingly with all asymmetric balance in its favor India is still insecure and feels threatened by Pakistan’s comparatively modest requirements. The terror threat to Pakistani nukes and thence to India and the US is regularly invoked as a mantra especially in the wake of the high profile assassination in Pakistan that is being used by India and by the US to stoke fears of terrorist or extremist inroads into the security apparatus for strategic assets. The US should be aware of the custodial controls in place but India’s motive is to bring into question the civil-military relations in Pakistan by insisting that there should be civilian control—something that will come but at a pace to be determined by Pakistan and not India. The other whip used is the past proliferation episode that is repeatedly floated with new ‘discoveries’—even though it is a dead issue for Pakistan. Pakistan has made it clear that it is supportive of all non-proliferation regimes as long as they are non-discriminatory.

Pakistanis who are deep into military and intelligence bashing because their new found freedom to do so gives them a good macho feel should seriously consider whose interest they are serving. Constructive criticism certainly helps and should go on but doing what others want us to do will be counter- productive. A deeper insight into Pakistan’s future security policy is required especially by those who want Pakistan to roll over and play dead just because it is in a transitional phase and has vulnerabilities that are being ruthlessly exploited by others.

By Ghalib Sultan