The Ugly American

Spearhead Analysis - 03.02.11

AY is a young banker. A few days ago he drove out of his bank to run an errand. He stopped at a busy intersection where traffic was being controlled by a traffic warden. Hearing a tap on his window he turned and looked into the muzzle of a pistol leveled at him from under a loose scarf that hid it from others. The motor cyclist who had another person sitting behind him with a similar scarf motioned him to lower his window. He did so and complied immediately with the demand to hand over his wallet, watch and phone. The whole episode took two minutes and the motorcyclists sped away leaving the young man to face the wrath of the traffic warden who was angrily urging him to move it. OS is a young businessman. Returning from work he felt a vehicle hitting his car from behind. He jumped out to investigate and was whisked away by two armed men leaving his driver shouting. It has been six weeks and ransom negotiations are slowly dragging on. These two true stories are a tiny sampling of the menace of street crime, kidnappings and even killings on the streets of Lahore as well as other urban areas. The victims are helpless because no one can help them and the criminals have established credibility by killing those who resisted—in every case they got away.

Against this backdrop consider the case of the ‘American’ Raymond Davis, except that he is not actually Raymond Davis (as indirectly admitted by the US spokesman Mr Crowley). What should have been a hold-up gone horribly wrong has turned into the kind of incident that neither Pakistan nor the US wanted. The ‘American’ obviously a highly trained operative shot two motor cycle riding young Pakistanis apparently (according to his version) in self defense. He then called for ‘back-up’ from his own people and a speeding car that responded ran over and killed another Pakistani and injured others as it violated all traffic laws to whisk the ‘American’ away. They failed—and in any case it was a fatally flawed decision. The ‘American’ is in police custody and the case is now sub-judice in the Lahore High Court. The US has demanded his immediate release claiming diplomatic immunity for him. There is now confusion over his identity, his status, his job description, the business that took him to one of the city’s most crowded areas alone and armed, the lone eye witness who has disappeared after a single TV appearance, the identity of the policemen who arrested him, the exact circumstances of the shooting , the number of rounds fired, the caliber of the weapon used, the ability of the ‘American’ to call up and summon his colleagues who attempted a ‘hijack’ instead of talking to the police on the spot (probably fearing a reaction from the crowd and further mayhem) and finally the identity of those who responded for the ‘rescue’. Each one of these ambiguities could and should have been cleared up within 24 hours if there was cooperation and transparency—that these remain unclear has led to speculation and media frenzy that is now taking many directions. The US demand, without a resolution of the incident, has put Pakistani law enforcement and the judicial system up against the wall. A more cooperative attitude would have left the door open and this gauntlet hastily thrown has created complications.

The street discussion (and in some cases the media) ranges over several scenarios. The ‘Blackwater’ controversy has been revived and the name this time is “Hyperion Protective Consultants”—obviously a cover for other work. There is the perception that trained operatives have gained access and run loose in urban areas embedded in a notoriously unsuspecting civil society to hire local agents, locate high value targets and perhaps collect the millions promised as ‘bounty’. There are suspicions that it’s all about nukes—to discover locations, plan access and prepare for ‘contingencies’. There is the extreme scenario that these loose cannons are guns for hire and are behind the violence and lawlessness in urban areas either to push the military into North Waziristan or failing that to destabilize the entire country for an implosion modulated by economic clout. Media is speculating on the presence of other such ‘Americans’ riding around in vehicles with false plates. There is the doubt whether the operatives are all ‘American’ sponsored or others are also involved.

All of this could have been avoided if there had been a sense of urgency in factual disclosures preempting media and public opinion—a lesson that is not being learnt and is especially important in Pakistan’s current charged environment. The most significant factor of course is transparency and that is possible only when there is nothing to hide. As if orchestrated there are other issues coming to the fore—a statement from the Deputy Military Commander in Afghanistan that ‘the war in Afghanistan is winnable without Pakistan’, the killing of a Pakistani soldier in an exchange of fire between Afghan and Pakistani forces on the border, the story of an increase in Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal (when it is no secret that stockpile augmentation and delivery system improvement continues unabated in both India and Pakistan), the displeasure over Pakistan’s stance on the FMCT (with India joining the chorus) and the IMF refusal to release the next tranche of the badly needed funds. There is speculation that much more will follow. There are voices calling for a nuclear energy pact and an economic bail-out for Pakistan but these are lost in the confusion that prevails.

The overriding requirement is for diplomacy and tact to take over and dominate the discourse. The first step has to be identification and determination of visa status—this will set the course for a decision on custody and legal procedure. This should not be difficult between strategic allies if they want the air to be cleared. Pakistan, of course, needs to address the entire law and order issue comprehensively and methodically to ensure human and material security.

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